Round up 21-23 June

My, my. 3 days without a round up so I have to dedicate a whole post to that.

Plus, my previous bets at the start of the tournament do come into play now.

June 10 Bets

AFC - NO An AFC Team will not qualify to R16 2.05; Lose $10.00
Group C Winner - USA 5.00 x $5.00 = $25.00
France not to qualify from Group A: 3.15 x $5.00 = $15.75
Group D Grand Total Goals Under 14.5 Goals (12 goals total) 1.87 x $10.00 = $18.60

Total June 10 returns: $49.35

June 21 Bets

Portugal v DPR Half time result Draw 2.30; Lose $5.00
Portugal v DPR First team carded Portugal 2.05; Lose $5.00
Chile v Switzerland Under 2.5 goals 1.45 x $5.00 = $7.25
Spain v Honduras Over 2.5 goals 1.60; Lose $5.00

Total June 21 Returns : -$7.75

June 22 Bets
Gre v Arg ; Arg win 1.40 x $5.00 = $7.00
South Korea / Draw 1.36 x $5.00 = $6.80
South Africa/Draw 1.75 x $5.00 = $8.75

Total June 22 Returns = $22.55

June 23 Bets

Slovenia/draw 2.75; Lose $5.00
Australia/draw 1.82 x $5.00 = $9.10
USA win 1.80 x $5.00 = $9.00
Germany win 1.38 x $5.00 = $6.90

Ttoal June 23 Returns = $20.00

Round -up

Previous Returns + June 10 Returns + June 21 Returns + June 22 Returns + June 23 Returns
$100.20 + $49.35 - $7.75 + $22.55 + $20 = $184.30

How good is that? Especially my June 10 Bets (The USA group winner bet was sweet one with a 5.00 return)

Comments

For June 10 Bets, I still have my dual bet on Ghana and Ivory Coast for Top African Team. :)
Nigeria almost spoiled that bet which was 'guaranteed' a 2.00 return.

Note: I previously used the word 'winnings' but the word 'returns' would me more suitable.
I've taken into account in my calculations Bets lost, but for the bets that I have won, I did not factor in the 'cost' or my 'outlay'.

Will do that at the end of the tournament.


Preview of World Cup Futures and Round 16

World Cup Winner

Argentina 5.00 ; Brazil 5.00; Spain 6.00; Holland 8.00; England 10.00; Germany 10.00; Uruguay 15.00
Bookies have made Argentina and Brazil joint favourites. Holland's are fourth favourites at second place. Uruguay is 7th place.

Holland- Good Bet? No. They will face 2nd place Italy in R16, and if they progress, will then face the winner of Brazil (if they top group) vs Switzerland (Likely, Unless Chile draw their final game); and if they do progress, Uruguay. 3 HUGE opponents on the road to the finals. Unless you think very strongly that either Holland or Brazil will win the world cup (the winner of that game), and put a 'dual bet' on 2 separate bets on Holland and Brazil to win world cup (ie one of them wins world cup, you still will have a positive return in the end) I do not recommend this.

Uruguay I think is worth a bet. Their R16 opponents (Korea) will be too easy, QF opponents of either Ghana/ USA will also be no match for them. In the Semis however, they will face winner of Brazil (if they top group) vs Holland. Winner of that game (Uruguay vs Brazil/Holland) would almost guarantee to win the world cup. But prior to the Mexico game, it waas 34.00, but 15.00 is still a good price.

Argentina - avoid at all cost. see my previous comments.

Top Goal Scorer

Higuain's price went up from 2+ to now 3.75 which I suspect is Villa scoring 2 in the previous gae.

Villa is now second at 4.50. I placed a June 10 Bet when he was priced at 8.00. At 4.50, he is still a reasonable bet, although I wouldn't highly recommend it.

Fabiano comes third at 5.50. This would be a tricky one. If you favour Brazil to enter the finals, it is a reasonable bet. But considering the opponents Brazil could face on the road to the finals : First: Switzerland/Chile , Second: Netherlands/Italy, and Third: Uruguay. Very very tricky, but as I said: think 'five' as your lucky number. Is he able to score 3 more in 5 games? Perhaps. But 3 against the abovesaid opponents? Switzerland, Uruguay and Italy would be extremely difficult to score against.

Forlan comes fourth at 11.00. Its unlucky that I placed a bet when he was priced 6.50 or something. At 11.00 , you have a even better bet. Opponents: South Korea, USA/Ghana, Brazil/Netherlands/Italy/Switzerland/Chile. You are essentially banking on the South Korea, USA/Ghana game to for him to score 2 - 3 goals (not difficult). And hope that he scores just 1 more in the Semis or in the Final. At 11.00, I highly recommend this.

Messi comes fifth at 19.00. A dark horse. BUT I do not think Argentina will reach the Final. Semi Finals if they're lucky. First of all I think Mexico have a good chance of winning R16 game vs them. Then, its England/Germany (QF), then if they do progress, its Spain/Paraguay/Portual (SF).
Thats why I think Argentina have a very small chance of reaching the finals. Rate them poorly for being world cup winners. But in Messi you have a wild card. Its easy to say Argentina will not progress far considering the opponents their likely to come up against. But is it possible for Messi to score 4 goals in a single game involving either England, Germany, Mexico, Spain, Paraguay or Portugal? The answer is YES. So I think Messi @ 19.00 is still worth a bet.

Super Wild Card: Klose @ 41.00. opponents and likely opponents : England (R16), followed by Mexico/Argentina (QF), followed by Spain/Paraguay/Portugal (SF).
Klose current goal tally is ONE. 4 goals in 3 games ? (For golden boot I use FIVE as a threshold) A tall order. Maybe 3, maybe 2... but FOUR?! Score 2 against England, and he needs to score just 2 more. Argentina is easy to score against but that can't be said for the rest of Germany's likely opponents. But i think if Germany do well, he might just be able to make it. And I think that he has easier opponents (to score against) as compared to Fabiano (the hardest) and Villa.
But then... 41.00 is a SUPER return. $5 x 41.00 = $205.00.

Conclusion: I rate the WC golden boot winner (factoring the returns) like this: Forlan (11.00), Villa (4.50), Fabiano (5.50), Messi (19.00) , Klose (41.00).


Preview of R 16

Uruguay vs Korea ; Uru 1.75 Kor 4.55. Nothing surprising there, although Uruguay's odds are lower than what I would like.

Shocking Stuff: Argentina v Mexico; Arg 1.48 Mex 6.85. I'm definately going to bet Mexico/Draw. But, Argentina @ 1.48?!! You gotta be kidding me, that is way too low.