Casualties (in order):
1. Ronaldinho
2. Theo Walcott
3. Ribery
4. Drogba
5. Cannavaro
6. Rooney
Casualties yet to be claimed:
Ronaldo
Spain: Iniesta, Pique, Fabregas
The Entire Holland Team (hopefully not)
That leaves us with the following teams in contention:
Uruguay, Ghana, Argentina, Germany, Japan, Paraguay, Slovakia, Chile, Brazil
The rest of the Brazil squad made a brief appearance, so whether or not they'll end up a casualty is not known
Holding the Theory true
What we know: Spain v Portugal
Then Winner of Spain v Portugal VS. Paraguay v Japan in QF
Because both Spain and Portugal appear in the Nike Ad:
So one of Paraguay, Japan will proceed to Semi to vs Winner of Germany, Argentina
Holland vs Slovakia, Holland appeared in Nike Ad, so Slovakia goes through
Brazil v Chile, Brazil appeared in Nike Ad, but maybe Dunga was aware of the Nike Ad curse so he left out Ronaldinho from the squad... the curse might affect them, it might not...
So, if the curse hits Brazil... then its Chile vs Slovakia
then winner of Chile v Slovakia will play against Uruguay/Ghana
Nike Ad results in the final being:
Paraguay/Japan/Germany/Argentina vs Chile/Slovakia/Uruguay/Ghana
Sunday, June 27, 2010
28 June
Papers tomorrow, no time for round up
Predictions 28 June
28 June Bets
Holland win 1.40; Bet $5.00
Over 1.5 Goals 1.35; Bet $5.00
Over 2.5 Goals 2.15; Bet $5.00
Half Time Result: Holland 1.90; Bet $5.00
Brazil win 1.50; Bet $5.00
Over 1.5 Goals 1.36; Bet $5.00
Over 2.5 Goals 2.20; Bet $5.00
1st Team Carded: Chile 1.61; Bet$5.00
Note: for Brazil v Chile, TAB doesn't have many betting odds for cards. This game is a yellow card fest and quite possibly a red card or two. Bet on cards
Predictions 28 June
Netherlands v Slovakia 3:1
Brazil v Chile 2:1
28 June Bets
Holland win 1.40; Bet $5.00
Over 1.5 Goals 1.35; Bet $5.00
Over 2.5 Goals 2.15; Bet $5.00
Half Time Result: Holland 1.90; Bet $5.00
Brazil win 1.50; Bet $5.00
Over 1.5 Goals 1.36; Bet $5.00
Over 2.5 Goals 2.20; Bet $5.00
1st Team Carded: Chile 1.61; Bet$5.00
Note: for Brazil v Chile, TAB doesn't have many betting odds for cards. This game is a yellow card fest and quite possibly a red card or two. Bet on cards
Some recaps of my predictions of R16.... Golden Quotes
Here's some ego-boosting recaps... some golden quotes from myself
Uruguay v South Korea
"...Korea's defenders will also have to be on the watch out or be positionally disciplined because Suarez and Cavani if tend to drift wide to drag the South Korea's defense open ..."
"...Uruguay could score one or two early, and sit back and defend, as this is the way they play..."
Ghana v USA
"...Ghana are extremely solid defensively, packing a lot of players in their half. But Ghana have not scored in open play - they could have a problem scoring [wrong] USA went behind in their first 2 games before coming back from behind to draw/win. So a goal could be conceded here... "
Germany v England
This is the best quote
" ...England SHOULD NOT be playing 4-4-2 in this game. the reason why is Germany will outnumber England in midfield should they do so. This was how Ozil was effective vs Australia and Ghana, because they didn't have the numbers in midfield to match Germany: 4 vs 5, leaving the extra man (Ozil) being unmarked, or if someone like Barry tends to mark Ozil, Swxxxxger / Muller could make upfield runs to hurt them... "
Mexico v Argentina
"... With both sides very excellent in attacking. But Mexico has a problem in that its attacks don't usually result in goals. But Mexico is much more organized defensively as compared to Argentina, so to back Argentina to give Mexico an absolute thrashing is unlikely either, unless Mexico fall behind early, and are trying to find an equaliser..."
"...Who comes up the winner of this match, would ultimately be decided on who manages to score the first goal. Both sides have excellent attackers, and teams that are searching for the equaliser would be punished heavily...."
Uruguay v South Korea
"...Korea's defenders will also have to be on the watch out or be positionally disciplined because Suarez and Cavani if tend to drift wide to drag the South Korea's defense open ..."
"...Uruguay could score one or two early, and sit back and defend, as this is the way they play..."
Ghana v USA
"...Ghana are extremely solid defensively, packing a lot of players in their half. But Ghana have not scored in open play - they could have a problem scoring [wrong] USA went behind in their first 2 games before coming back from behind to draw/win. So a goal could be conceded here... "
Germany v England
This is the best quote
" ...England SHOULD NOT be playing 4-4-2 in this game. the reason why is Germany will outnumber England in midfield should they do so. This was how Ozil was effective vs Australia and Ghana, because they didn't have the numbers in midfield to match Germany: 4 vs 5, leaving the extra man (Ozil) being unmarked, or if someone like Barry tends to mark Ozil, Swxxxxger / Muller could make upfield runs to hurt them... "
Mexico v Argentina
"... With both sides very excellent in attacking. But Mexico has a problem in that its attacks don't usually result in goals. But Mexico is much more organized defensively as compared to Argentina, so to back Argentina to give Mexico an absolute thrashing is unlikely either, unless Mexico fall behind early, and are trying to find an equaliser..."
"...Who comes up the winner of this match, would ultimately be decided on who manages to score the first goal. Both sides have excellent attackers, and teams that are searching for the equaliser would be punished heavily...."
Saturday, June 26, 2010
Round up + June 27
Round up
Uruguay win 1.75 x $5.00 = $8.75
Uruguay v Korea Over 1.5 goals 1.50 x $5.00 = $7.50
Uruguay win by 2+ goals 3.50; - $5.00
Uruguay v Korea : First team to score Uruguay 1.58 x $5.00 = $7.90
USA Double Chance: USA/ Draw 1.44 x $5.00 = $7.20
Total Return = $26.35
Previous Return + June 26 Return = $201.00 + $26.35 = $227.35
June 27 Predictions
June 27 Bets
England v Germany over 1.5 goals 1.50; Bet $5.00
Germany win/draw double chance 1.45; Bet $5.00
Argentina v Mexico over 1.5 goals 1.35; Bet $5.00
Argetnina v Mexico over 2.5 goals 2.15; Bet $5.00
Mexico win/draw double chance 2.60; Bet $5.00
Uruguay win 1.75 x $5.00 = $8.75
Uruguay v Korea Over 1.5 goals 1.50 x $5.00 = $7.50
Uruguay win by 2+ goals 3.50; - $5.00
Uruguay v Korea : First team to score Uruguay 1.58 x $5.00 = $7.90
USA Double Chance: USA/ Draw 1.44 x $5.00 = $7.20
Total Return = $26.35
Previous Return + June 26 Return = $201.00 + $26.35 = $227.35
June 27 Predictions
England v Germay 1:3
Argentina v Mexico 2:3
June 27 Bets
England v Germany over 1.5 goals 1.50; Bet $5.00
Germany win/draw double chance 1.45; Bet $5.00
Argentina v Mexico over 1.5 goals 1.35; Bet $5.00
Argetnina v Mexico over 2.5 goals 2.15; Bet $5.00
Mexico win/draw double chance 2.60; Bet $5.00
Round 16 Preview / Predictions
Uruguay v South Korea 3:0
Uruguay are very defensively solid, organized and hard-working team. Asian teams have a problem with scoring and Uruguay will make it very hard for Korea. Uruguay kept 3 clean sheets in the group stages, and will continue to do so here. Uruguay's strikers of Cavani and Suarez are very hardworking will will play closer to the flanks to pin back South Korea's fullbacks. Diego Forlan will operate slightly deeper in the middle (Suarez and Cavani in front of him), South Korea's only realistic chance of getting anything out of this game is to have one of their defensive midfielders marking Forlan. Korea's defenders will also have to be on the watch out or be positionally disciplined because Suarez and Cavani if tend to drift wide to drag the South Korea's defense open to create space for Forlan in the middle.
Also Uruguay's weapon will be Suarez. He has the tendency to dive (I forgot which game was it, but he dived almost THREE times in a single game, and i saw him do this in the other games). Asian's players tendency of making clumsy challenges could be fatal because of Suarez's diving skills. And Forlan will convert the resulting penalty.
My prediction of Uruguay scoring 3 is fair. Uruguay could score one or two early, and sit back and defend, as this is the way they play. South Korea would need to attack to score the much needed goal, leaving space behind for Uruguay to exploit.
Good Bets: Uruguay to win a penalty, Uruguay to score in the first half, Uruguay to keep a clean sheet.
Ghana v USA 1:2
This is one of the harder games to judge from the R16. Ghana are extremely solid defensively, packing a lot of players in their half. But Ghana have not scored in open play - they could have a problem scoring. USA went behind in their first 2 games before coming back from behind to draw/win. So a goal could be conceded here.
Ghana is excellent defensively, but thier goal conceded in the Germany game was due to a man-marking error. Watch the highlights, Ozil was left by himself with plenty of space, no-one, absolutely no one marking him at all. Hence, the goal he scored, and his one-on-one earlier in the game. But USA does not operate like many other teams with a central attacker sitting deep behind the forwards centrally. So this earlier mistake in the Germany game might not have any impact on this.
Germany v England 2:1
To be honest, another difficult game. England SHOULD NOT be playing 4-4-2 in this game. the reason why is Germany will outnumber England in midfield should they do so. This was how Ozil was effective vs Australia and Ghana, because they didn't have the numbers in midfield to match Germany: 4 vs 5, leaving the extra man (Ozil) being unmarked, or if someone like Barry tends to mark Ozil, Swxxxxger / Muller could make upfield runs to hurt them.
Sxxxger's loss will be huge for Germany, and they will be hoping for him to be fit for this game. Ghana did well against Germany because they marked Kheidera and Sxxxger very effectively.
The problem with this game is, both teams are weak defensively. Germany's particular weakness is at left back, so England would do well if they let Milner / Johnson to exploit this. Lahm tends to go forward a lot, because Muller is not naturally a flank player but plays centrally, and Germany could lose out if Kheidera or Sxxxxger doesn't try to cover his position.
Klose's return is a huge boost for Germany and England will have to be careful because his positioning is excellent, making space for Muller, Ozil, Kheidera to run into space.
This game could either be a scoring draw (1-1, 2-2) , because of both team's weak defense, or a 2-1 win to Germany, because they've got better attackers.
Result could potentially be settled in Extra Time. Germany are a much fitter team than England and would do well if that would be the case.
If result is not settled in Extra Time, don't bet on Germany winning on penalties. The old Germany relies on efficiency and excellent penalty-taking to take them far in competitions. New germany is young, and pressure could potentially get to them in a shoot out, as experience plays a vital role here. But England's problems with nerves, as they claim was the problem in the first 2 games, could make them potentially worse penalty takers than Germany, and historically England are not good penalty takers. So even if the game goes to penalties, it is hard to actually determine who will come up tops in it.
Mexico vs Argentina 3:2
This game should be a cracker. With both sides very excellent in attacking. But Mexico has a problem in that its attacks don't usually result in goals. But Mexico is much more organized defensively as compared to Argentina, so to back Argentina to give Mexico an absolute thrashing is unlikely either, unless Mexico fall behind early, and are trying to find an equaliser.
Argentina's defense is shaky, and hasn't been properly tested so far in this competition. Nigeria created plenty of chances against them, and Korea had 2-3 decent ones. How Argentina's defense fares against teams will be severely tested in this round.
Who comes up the winner of this match, would ultimately be decided on who manages to score the first goal. Both sides have excellent attackers, and teams that are searching for the equaliser would be punished heavily. Both sides play quite centrally, but Mexico arguably utilise the wings and flanks better than Argentina, and Argentina's fullbacks are not particularly good at dealing with attacks from the oppositions.
Will be brave and tip for a Mexican wing. Note that the bookies have made Mexico 6.+ to win the game.
Netherlands v Slovakia 3:1
It is unsure whether Robben will play in this game, with the coach saying he is still cautious on playing Robben or not. What could potentially happen is Netherlands still resting Robben, and only bringing him on if they need a goal (ie game is scoreless / Netherlands are behind). Robben would be crucial in determining how Netherlands play, and how much of a threat are they offensively.
Netherlands defense haven't been severely tested in this tournament. Cameroon created many chances, but Netherlands defensive capabilities cannot be judged on that 'friendly' game alone. Netherlands kept 2 clean sheets, conceded 1 goal, and that goal was a penalty. So its safe to say so far, that they are pretty solid defensively.
Slovakia's attacking prowess and defensive organisation is hard to gauge. The way they scored their 3 goals against Italy is because of very very poor defending by Italy and Italy were looking to score. The entire team was kept quite against Paraguay, and games against NZ doesn't count. They conceded 2 goals late against Italy, but cannot be blamed for Italy's 2nd goal. But to be fair to Slovakia, Italy played excellent for 15 mins out of 270 mins of the entire tournament. But Slovakia still allowed Italy to create many chances.
This could more realistically be a low scoring game : 1-0 or 2-0 win for the Netherlands. If Robben comes on, Netherlands would most probably end up scoring more. But I've tipped for them to win 3-1 because Robben might start, I am not so sure of Slovakia defensively, and Netherlands defense has hardly been tested so far.
Brazil v Chile 2:1
For those betting for Cards, expect many to be handed out here. First: Chile fouls aggresively. Second: Chile have the ability to dive / exaggerate fouls - so cards could go to either side because of this scenario. Third: Brazil respond POORLY, when teams start to get aggresive against them (Ivory Coast, Portugal). A high carding game for this one. A player to be sent worth might be worth a bet.
But one definite prediction is, this would be the game to watch in Round 16. Prediction of end to end stuff.
One worry for Chile is they could potentially suffer fom exhaustion because of the way they play. They are very aggressive and the team does a lot of running throughout the game. They are not contend to sit back and defend a lead, and will keep on pressing and attacking, which might be costly at this stage of the competition, and when fixtures become closer to each other.
Brazil's performance against Portugal cannot be used to judge their strengths and weakness. Well, one weakness is extremely clear: they respond badly when subject to poor challenges, play-acting etc. Against Portugal, 3 of their first team attackers: Kaka, Elano and Robinho were not playing. One hopes Elano would be fit for this match after the rough tackle against Ivory Coast. With these attackers around, Brazil play much differently. Against Portugal, Portugal defended very deep and had many players behind the ball, where Brazil just couldn't find any opportunites to attack or no one to pass the ball to. But then, Brazil v Portugal was just a friendly , and many of their first team were not playing. The last 15 mins in particular was just Brazil passing the ball around the halfway line.
This has got to be the most exciting match of R16. But one that could also be dissapointing because of the number of cards, fouls, false injuries, bad tackles and dives. A brawl could potentially occur if we're lucky. For all these reasons : a must watch.
Paraguay v Japan 1:1
I have to rate this game alongside Ghana vs USA as the most difficult games to analyse in R16.
Like I said,everyone before the Denmark game claimed Japan were 'toothless' and unable to score goals. They scored 3 against Denmark, but then again, 2 of them were from free-kicks, and Denmark played extremely poorly. Japan played excellent football towards the end of that game, but it is claimed that 'the pressure were off' and they were in a comfortable position at that point (As Japan only needed a draw in that game, and even if Denmark were to come back from behind - A draw would be enough to take them to the next round). But Japan played nothing like they did for the last 15 mins against Denmark against any of the other teams. But this could be down to few reasons, Asian teams don't play well against African teams; they tried to play like Denmark against Netherlands to cancel them out. But Japan do look extremely organized defensively. Conceded 0 in first game, lost out to Netherlands due to a goal keeping error, (and note how frustrating that game against Netherlands was, De Jong claimed that the game vs Japan was a test of patience) and Denmark's goal was a penalty.
Like Slovakia, Paraguay haven't been properly tested in their group. They play defensively if they have to (Against Italy) and are quite adept at cancelling teams out. The game against NZ was a friendly. And they played particularly well against Slovakia. They are very organized as well and, realistic, as they defend when it is required of them.
This game could potentially end up in a draw in normal time. Who would prevail in extra time is unknown. Who would prevail in a shoot-out is also an unknown because of the unfamiliarity with the players, but we do know Japan's gk has saved a penalty so far...
Spain v Portugal 0:1
Bookies have made Portugal 3.92 to win and Spain as the favourites.
I think if there's a game for Ronaldo to shine, it is this one. Portugal will be heavily reliant on him to break with pace, as Portugal have shown in the Brazil game, that they could potentially move the entire team behind the ball and in their own half and just defend the entire game that way. Ivory Coast defended the whole game, and against Brazil it was just a friendly. Portugal are very physical if they have to be, and Spain will falter if they do so (Barcelona v Chelsea). If Portugal break on the counter, my guess is they will have plenty of space to exploit.
It will be Ronaldo to determine the outcome of the game. Chances for Portugal will be very few in this game, as they would be pressed in their own half . Like the Brazil game, where defending is required and will be the focus of the game, Ronaldo will play the lone striker role, which he did so against Brazil and did pretty well. Whether Ronaldo will pass a ball to a team mate that is unmarked could potentially be the whether Portugal will win or not. Portugal will win lies down in 3 scenarios: Whether or not: 1. Ronaldo producing just one spark of brilliance by shooting from everywhere on the pitch (which rarely results in a goal by the way) 2.Ronaldo trying too hard to do so (being brilliant), dribbling all the way, but refusing to pass and shoot himself, resulting in team mates in better positions to attack losing out because of his selfishness. 3. Ronaldo plays sensibly and utilises his pace and the many wholes in the spanish defence for the benefit of his team
This will be a very very very frustrating game for Spain, even more than the Switzerland game. and Ronaldo to decide the scoreline.
And I have forgot to mention, Portugal are the only other team (the other one being Uruguay) to have kept a clean sheet for all 3 group stages game. Apparently according to statistics, Portugal have kept around 21-24 clean sheets in 29 games. They will be very hard to score against, but Portugal have a weakeness going foward : the weakness being Ronaldo himself.
And if Portugal starts Deco in this game, you can bet on Spain winning it. Because he will do fuck all in the centre of the park, not defending, not running, not pressing and not attacking. As Portugal will have be very hard-working to grind out a result against Spain. Deco is too lazy for this game.
This game could also potentially go into extra time and penalties.
Uruguay are very defensively solid, organized and hard-working team. Asian teams have a problem with scoring and Uruguay will make it very hard for Korea. Uruguay kept 3 clean sheets in the group stages, and will continue to do so here. Uruguay's strikers of Cavani and Suarez are very hardworking will will play closer to the flanks to pin back South Korea's fullbacks. Diego Forlan will operate slightly deeper in the middle (Suarez and Cavani in front of him), South Korea's only realistic chance of getting anything out of this game is to have one of their defensive midfielders marking Forlan. Korea's defenders will also have to be on the watch out or be positionally disciplined because Suarez and Cavani if tend to drift wide to drag the South Korea's defense open to create space for Forlan in the middle.
Also Uruguay's weapon will be Suarez. He has the tendency to dive (I forgot which game was it, but he dived almost THREE times in a single game, and i saw him do this in the other games). Asian's players tendency of making clumsy challenges could be fatal because of Suarez's diving skills. And Forlan will convert the resulting penalty.
My prediction of Uruguay scoring 3 is fair. Uruguay could score one or two early, and sit back and defend, as this is the way they play. South Korea would need to attack to score the much needed goal, leaving space behind for Uruguay to exploit.
Good Bets: Uruguay to win a penalty, Uruguay to score in the first half, Uruguay to keep a clean sheet.
Ghana v USA 1:2
This is one of the harder games to judge from the R16. Ghana are extremely solid defensively, packing a lot of players in their half. But Ghana have not scored in open play - they could have a problem scoring. USA went behind in their first 2 games before coming back from behind to draw/win. So a goal could be conceded here.
Ghana is excellent defensively, but thier goal conceded in the Germany game was due to a man-marking error. Watch the highlights, Ozil was left by himself with plenty of space, no-one, absolutely no one marking him at all. Hence, the goal he scored, and his one-on-one earlier in the game. But USA does not operate like many other teams with a central attacker sitting deep behind the forwards centrally. So this earlier mistake in the Germany game might not have any impact on this.
Germany v England 2:1
To be honest, another difficult game. England SHOULD NOT be playing 4-4-2 in this game. the reason why is Germany will outnumber England in midfield should they do so. This was how Ozil was effective vs Australia and Ghana, because they didn't have the numbers in midfield to match Germany: 4 vs 5, leaving the extra man (Ozil) being unmarked, or if someone like Barry tends to mark Ozil, Swxxxxger / Muller could make upfield runs to hurt them.
Sxxxger's loss will be huge for Germany, and they will be hoping for him to be fit for this game. Ghana did well against Germany because they marked Kheidera and Sxxxger very effectively.
The problem with this game is, both teams are weak defensively. Germany's particular weakness is at left back, so England would do well if they let Milner / Johnson to exploit this. Lahm tends to go forward a lot, because Muller is not naturally a flank player but plays centrally, and Germany could lose out if Kheidera or Sxxxxger doesn't try to cover his position.
Klose's return is a huge boost for Germany and England will have to be careful because his positioning is excellent, making space for Muller, Ozil, Kheidera to run into space.
This game could either be a scoring draw (1-1, 2-2) , because of both team's weak defense, or a 2-1 win to Germany, because they've got better attackers.
Result could potentially be settled in Extra Time. Germany are a much fitter team than England and would do well if that would be the case.
If result is not settled in Extra Time, don't bet on Germany winning on penalties. The old Germany relies on efficiency and excellent penalty-taking to take them far in competitions. New germany is young, and pressure could potentially get to them in a shoot out, as experience plays a vital role here. But England's problems with nerves, as they claim was the problem in the first 2 games, could make them potentially worse penalty takers than Germany, and historically England are not good penalty takers. So even if the game goes to penalties, it is hard to actually determine who will come up tops in it.
Mexico vs Argentina 3:2
This game should be a cracker. With both sides very excellent in attacking. But Mexico has a problem in that its attacks don't usually result in goals. But Mexico is much more organized defensively as compared to Argentina, so to back Argentina to give Mexico an absolute thrashing is unlikely either, unless Mexico fall behind early, and are trying to find an equaliser.
Argentina's defense is shaky, and hasn't been properly tested so far in this competition. Nigeria created plenty of chances against them, and Korea had 2-3 decent ones. How Argentina's defense fares against teams will be severely tested in this round.
Who comes up the winner of this match, would ultimately be decided on who manages to score the first goal. Both sides have excellent attackers, and teams that are searching for the equaliser would be punished heavily. Both sides play quite centrally, but Mexico arguably utilise the wings and flanks better than Argentina, and Argentina's fullbacks are not particularly good at dealing with attacks from the oppositions.
Will be brave and tip for a Mexican wing. Note that the bookies have made Mexico 6.+ to win the game.
Netherlands v Slovakia 3:1
It is unsure whether Robben will play in this game, with the coach saying he is still cautious on playing Robben or not. What could potentially happen is Netherlands still resting Robben, and only bringing him on if they need a goal (ie game is scoreless / Netherlands are behind). Robben would be crucial in determining how Netherlands play, and how much of a threat are they offensively.
Netherlands defense haven't been severely tested in this tournament. Cameroon created many chances, but Netherlands defensive capabilities cannot be judged on that 'friendly' game alone. Netherlands kept 2 clean sheets, conceded 1 goal, and that goal was a penalty. So its safe to say so far, that they are pretty solid defensively.
Slovakia's attacking prowess and defensive organisation is hard to gauge. The way they scored their 3 goals against Italy is because of very very poor defending by Italy and Italy were looking to score. The entire team was kept quite against Paraguay, and games against NZ doesn't count. They conceded 2 goals late against Italy, but cannot be blamed for Italy's 2nd goal. But to be fair to Slovakia, Italy played excellent for 15 mins out of 270 mins of the entire tournament. But Slovakia still allowed Italy to create many chances.
This could more realistically be a low scoring game : 1-0 or 2-0 win for the Netherlands. If Robben comes on, Netherlands would most probably end up scoring more. But I've tipped for them to win 3-1 because Robben might start, I am not so sure of Slovakia defensively, and Netherlands defense has hardly been tested so far.
Brazil v Chile 2:1
For those betting for Cards, expect many to be handed out here. First: Chile fouls aggresively. Second: Chile have the ability to dive / exaggerate fouls - so cards could go to either side because of this scenario. Third: Brazil respond POORLY, when teams start to get aggresive against them (Ivory Coast, Portugal). A high carding game for this one. A player to be sent worth might be worth a bet.
But one definite prediction is, this would be the game to watch in Round 16. Prediction of end to end stuff.
One worry for Chile is they could potentially suffer fom exhaustion because of the way they play. They are very aggressive and the team does a lot of running throughout the game. They are not contend to sit back and defend a lead, and will keep on pressing and attacking, which might be costly at this stage of the competition, and when fixtures become closer to each other.
Brazil's performance against Portugal cannot be used to judge their strengths and weakness. Well, one weakness is extremely clear: they respond badly when subject to poor challenges, play-acting etc. Against Portugal, 3 of their first team attackers: Kaka, Elano and Robinho were not playing. One hopes Elano would be fit for this match after the rough tackle against Ivory Coast. With these attackers around, Brazil play much differently. Against Portugal, Portugal defended very deep and had many players behind the ball, where Brazil just couldn't find any opportunites to attack or no one to pass the ball to. But then, Brazil v Portugal was just a friendly , and many of their first team were not playing. The last 15 mins in particular was just Brazil passing the ball around the halfway line.
This has got to be the most exciting match of R16. But one that could also be dissapointing because of the number of cards, fouls, false injuries, bad tackles and dives. A brawl could potentially occur if we're lucky. For all these reasons : a must watch.
Paraguay v Japan 1:1
I have to rate this game alongside Ghana vs USA as the most difficult games to analyse in R16.
Like I said,everyone before the Denmark game claimed Japan were 'toothless' and unable to score goals. They scored 3 against Denmark, but then again, 2 of them were from free-kicks, and Denmark played extremely poorly. Japan played excellent football towards the end of that game, but it is claimed that 'the pressure were off' and they were in a comfortable position at that point (As Japan only needed a draw in that game, and even if Denmark were to come back from behind - A draw would be enough to take them to the next round). But Japan played nothing like they did for the last 15 mins against Denmark against any of the other teams. But this could be down to few reasons, Asian teams don't play well against African teams; they tried to play like Denmark against Netherlands to cancel them out. But Japan do look extremely organized defensively. Conceded 0 in first game, lost out to Netherlands due to a goal keeping error, (and note how frustrating that game against Netherlands was, De Jong claimed that the game vs Japan was a test of patience) and Denmark's goal was a penalty.
Like Slovakia, Paraguay haven't been properly tested in their group. They play defensively if they have to (Against Italy) and are quite adept at cancelling teams out. The game against NZ was a friendly. And they played particularly well against Slovakia. They are very organized as well and, realistic, as they defend when it is required of them.
This game could potentially end up in a draw in normal time. Who would prevail in extra time is unknown. Who would prevail in a shoot-out is also an unknown because of the unfamiliarity with the players, but we do know Japan's gk has saved a penalty so far...
Spain v Portugal 0:1
Bookies have made Portugal 3.92 to win and Spain as the favourites.
I think if there's a game for Ronaldo to shine, it is this one. Portugal will be heavily reliant on him to break with pace, as Portugal have shown in the Brazil game, that they could potentially move the entire team behind the ball and in their own half and just defend the entire game that way. Ivory Coast defended the whole game, and against Brazil it was just a friendly. Portugal are very physical if they have to be, and Spain will falter if they do so (Barcelona v Chelsea). If Portugal break on the counter, my guess is they will have plenty of space to exploit.
It will be Ronaldo to determine the outcome of the game. Chances for Portugal will be very few in this game, as they would be pressed in their own half . Like the Brazil game, where defending is required and will be the focus of the game, Ronaldo will play the lone striker role, which he did so against Brazil and did pretty well. Whether Ronaldo will pass a ball to a team mate that is unmarked could potentially be the whether Portugal will win or not. Portugal will win lies down in 3 scenarios: Whether or not: 1. Ronaldo producing just one spark of brilliance by shooting from everywhere on the pitch (which rarely results in a goal by the way) 2.Ronaldo trying too hard to do so (being brilliant), dribbling all the way, but refusing to pass and shoot himself, resulting in team mates in better positions to attack losing out because of his selfishness. 3. Ronaldo plays sensibly and utilises his pace and the many wholes in the spanish defence for the benefit of his team
This will be a very very very frustrating game for Spain, even more than the Switzerland game. and Ronaldo to decide the scoreline.
And I have forgot to mention, Portugal are the only other team (the other one being Uruguay) to have kept a clean sheet for all 3 group stages game. Apparently according to statistics, Portugal have kept around 21-24 clean sheets in 29 games. They will be very hard to score against, but Portugal have a weakeness going foward : the weakness being Ronaldo himself.
And if Portugal starts Deco in this game, you can bet on Spain winning it. Because he will do fuck all in the centre of the park, not defending, not running, not pressing and not attacking. As Portugal will have be very hard-working to grind out a result against Spain. Deco is too lazy for this game.
This game could also potentially go into extra time and penalties.
Friday, June 25, 2010
June 26 Bets
Predictions
Uruguay v Korea 3:0
Ghana v USA 1:2
Bets
Uruguay win 1.75 ; Bet $5.00
Uruguay v Korea Over 1.5 goals 1.50; Bet $5.00
Uruguay win by 2+ goals 3.50; Bet $5.00
Uruguay v Korea : First team to score Uruguay 1.58; Bet $5.00
USA Double Chance: USA/ Draw 1.44; Bet $5.00
Uruguay v Korea 3:0
Ghana v USA 1:2
Bets
Uruguay win 1.75 ; Bet $5.00
Uruguay v Korea Over 1.5 goals 1.50; Bet $5.00
Uruguay win by 2+ goals 3.50; Bet $5.00
Uruguay v Korea : First team to score Uruguay 1.58; Bet $5.00
USA Double Chance: USA/ Draw 1.44; Bet $5.00
Round up of 25 June Bets and Group Future Bets
Round up 25 June
Spain win 1.45 x $5.00 = $7.25
Ivory Coast win 1.40 x $5.00 = $7
Brazil win 2.25; - $5.00
Switzerland win 1.45; - $5.00
Total 25 June Returns = $4.25
Random Past Future Bets
Group E Grand Total Goals Over 14.5 Goals 1.87; - $5.00 (Total: 14 goals)
Group F To Qualify for R16, Slovakia 2.15 x $10.00 = $21.50
Group G Grand Total Goals Over 16.5 Goals 1.95 x $5.00 = $9.75 (Total: 17 goals)
Group E to Qualify R16 Denmark 2.35; - $5.00
Group C to Qualify R16 USA 1.45 x $5.00 = $7.25
Group H to Qualify R16 Switzerland 1.30 - $5.00
Group G North Korea to Qualify R16 17.00; - $5.00
Random Past Future Bets Returns= $18.50
Total Returns
Previous Returns = $178.05
Previous Returns + June 25 Returns + Group Future Bets
= $178.05 + $4.25 + $18.50 = $201.00
Spain win 1.45 x $5.00 = $7.25
Ivory Coast win 1.40 x $5.00 = $7
Brazil win 2.25; - $5.00
Switzerland win 1.45; - $5.00
Total 25 June Returns = $4.25
Random Past Future Bets
Group E Grand Total Goals Over 14.5 Goals 1.87; - $5.00 (Total: 14 goals)
Group F To Qualify for R16, Slovakia 2.15 x $10.00 = $21.50
Group G Grand Total Goals Over 16.5 Goals 1.95 x $5.00 = $9.75 (Total: 17 goals)
Group E to Qualify R16 Denmark 2.35; - $5.00
Group C to Qualify R16 USA 1.45 x $5.00 = $7.25
Group H to Qualify R16 Switzerland 1.30 - $5.00
Group G North Korea to Qualify R16 17.00; - $5.00
Random Past Future Bets Returns= $18.50
Total Returns
Previous Returns = $178.05
Previous Returns + June 25 Returns + Group Future Bets
= $178.05 + $4.25 + $18.50 = $201.00
Thursday, June 24, 2010
25 June
Yesterday
This is ridiculous. Out of 4 games played yesterday I only got 1 outcome right. My consolation is that I predicted the correct score for that correct outcome (Netherlands v Cameroon 2:1). But getting 3 out of 4 outcomes (75%) wrong in a single match-day is unprecedented in the short history of the 2010 World Cup.
I, like Italy, suffered a crushing blow to my ego and confidence. I will have to pick myself up from this defeat and look towards the coming fixtures. Considering the length of this tournament and the number of fixtures remaining, it is crucial that I regain my form and go back to my winning ways.
Paraguay win 1.40; Lost $5.00
Holland win 1.75 x $5.00 = $8.75
Denmark / draw 1.32; Lost $5.00
Bendtner to score 2.65; Lost $5.00
Total Returns: - $6.25
Previous Returns + June 24 Returns = $184.30 - $6.25 = $178.05
Comments
Isn't Japan a shit team in the friendlies in the lead up to the world cup? They had like 1,000 defeats or something and scored like 50 own goals. And everywhere on the internet, they're refered to as the 'toothless samurais' - unable to score goals?
And didn't Slovakia play like shit against Paraguay?
And didn't Denmark do decently well against Netherlands on the first day?
And Italy... since when do they score more than 1 goal a game?
The world turned upside down on 24 June. One of the darkest days of the (my) world cup.
I thought the group F would be fairly straight-forward, but in the end it was full of drama. In fact, was there any group so far in Round 3 that didn't have its dramas? Again, I have made the right prediction that a boring round 1 would not necessarily be a bad thing, because everyone would be fighting for qualification in round 3... there were so many exciting games during this round...
A: South Africa could have almost qualified, Mexico vs Uruguay (bookie odds were 1.80 for draw) didn't play for a draw and both sides attacked from start to finish...
B: Nigeria so nearly qualified - they would have if they took their chances
C: USA scored on the 90+ minute to send them top of the group.
D: Australia v Serbia what a game. It almost looked as if the impossible could happen until Serbia scored against them.
E: well... no real drama here... but Japan v Denmark was a good game. And who would've expected a thrashing of Denmark?
F: What looked like a fairly straightforward group, even after round 2 (Expected: Paraguay 1st place , Italy 2nd place) - ended in a crazy game between Slovakia v Italy. Italy nearly, so nearly looked like they were able to come back from the the 2 goal deficit.
G: And shockingly, the Group of Death at the start of the tournament, ends up being the most BORING and STRAIGHTFORWARD round 3 match.... Brazil and Portugal are practically guaranteed qualification. And it basically comes down to who tops the group. But does it matter if they top the group or not? Does anyone know for sure which one of Spain/Chile/Switzerland will qualify from Group H? But we can only pray for some drama, like Brazil humbling 'CR9 fuck you I'm so pretty' giving them a 4-0 thrashing, and Ivory Coast maybe scoring 5 or 6 against North Korea to qualify? Or 'CR9 I'm so gay' getting a red card. Group G, don't let us down.
H: Are Switzerland able to beat Honduras? If they score 2 against Honduras and Chile loses to Spain, Chile are out... if Chile draws with Spain, Switzerland draws with Honduras - Chile 1st place, Spain 2nd... , if Chile loses to Spain and Switzerland loses / draw to Honduras... Spain 1st place, Chile 2nd... so many possibilities. Chile's failure to score more than 1 goal for their earlier 2 games might cost them... Chile v Spain the absolute highlight of Round 3
June 25 Predictions
North Korea v Ivory Coast 1:3
Portugal v Brazil 0:2
Chile v Spain 1:3
Switzerland v Honduras 2:1
June 25 Bets
Spain win 1.45 ; Bet $5.00
Ivory Coast win 1.40; Bet $5.00
Brazil win 2.25; Bet $5.00
Switzerland win 1.45; Bet $5.00
This is ridiculous. Out of 4 games played yesterday I only got 1 outcome right. My consolation is that I predicted the correct score for that correct outcome (Netherlands v Cameroon 2:1). But getting 3 out of 4 outcomes (75%) wrong in a single match-day is unprecedented in the short history of the 2010 World Cup.
I, like Italy, suffered a crushing blow to my ego and confidence. I will have to pick myself up from this defeat and look towards the coming fixtures. Considering the length of this tournament and the number of fixtures remaining, it is crucial that I regain my form and go back to my winning ways.
Paraguay win 1.40; Lost $5.00
Holland win 1.75 x $5.00 = $8.75
Denmark / draw 1.32; Lost $5.00
Bendtner to score 2.65; Lost $5.00
Total Returns: - $6.25
Previous Returns + June 24 Returns = $184.30 - $6.25 = $178.05
Comments
Isn't Japan a shit team in the friendlies in the lead up to the world cup? They had like 1,000 defeats or something and scored like 50 own goals. And everywhere on the internet, they're refered to as the 'toothless samurais' - unable to score goals?
And didn't Slovakia play like shit against Paraguay?
And didn't Denmark do decently well against Netherlands on the first day?
And Italy... since when do they score more than 1 goal a game?
The world turned upside down on 24 June. One of the darkest days of the (my) world cup.
I thought the group F would be fairly straight-forward, but in the end it was full of drama. In fact, was there any group so far in Round 3 that didn't have its dramas? Again, I have made the right prediction that a boring round 1 would not necessarily be a bad thing, because everyone would be fighting for qualification in round 3... there were so many exciting games during this round...
A: South Africa could have almost qualified, Mexico vs Uruguay (bookie odds were 1.80 for draw) didn't play for a draw and both sides attacked from start to finish...
B: Nigeria so nearly qualified - they would have if they took their chances
C: USA scored on the 90+ minute to send them top of the group.
D: Australia v Serbia what a game. It almost looked as if the impossible could happen until Serbia scored against them.
E: well... no real drama here... but Japan v Denmark was a good game. And who would've expected a thrashing of Denmark?
F: What looked like a fairly straightforward group, even after round 2 (Expected: Paraguay 1st place , Italy 2nd place) - ended in a crazy game between Slovakia v Italy. Italy nearly, so nearly looked like they were able to come back from the the 2 goal deficit.
G: And shockingly, the Group of Death at the start of the tournament, ends up being the most BORING and STRAIGHTFORWARD round 3 match.... Brazil and Portugal are practically guaranteed qualification. And it basically comes down to who tops the group. But does it matter if they top the group or not? Does anyone know for sure which one of Spain/Chile/Switzerland will qualify from Group H? But we can only pray for some drama, like Brazil humbling 'CR9 fuck you I'm so pretty' giving them a 4-0 thrashing, and Ivory Coast maybe scoring 5 or 6 against North Korea to qualify? Or 'CR9 I'm so gay' getting a red card. Group G, don't let us down.
H: Are Switzerland able to beat Honduras? If they score 2 against Honduras and Chile loses to Spain, Chile are out... if Chile draws with Spain, Switzerland draws with Honduras - Chile 1st place, Spain 2nd... , if Chile loses to Spain and Switzerland loses / draw to Honduras... Spain 1st place, Chile 2nd... so many possibilities. Chile's failure to score more than 1 goal for their earlier 2 games might cost them... Chile v Spain the absolute highlight of Round 3
June 25 Predictions
North Korea v Ivory Coast 1:3
Portugal v Brazil 0:2
Chile v Spain 1:3
Switzerland v Honduras 2:1
June 25 Bets
Spain win 1.45 ; Bet $5.00
Ivory Coast win 1.40; Bet $5.00
Brazil win 2.25; Bet $5.00
Switzerland win 1.45; Bet $5.00
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
June 24
Predictions
Paraguay vs NZ 2:0
Slovakia vs Italy 1:2
Cameroon vs Netherlands 1:2
Denmark vs Japan 2:1
June 24 Bets
Paraguay win 1.40; Bet $5.00
Holland win 1.75; Bet $5.00
Denmark / draw 1.32; Bet $5.00
Bendtner to score 2.65; Bet $5.00
Paraguay vs NZ 2:0
Slovakia vs Italy 1:2
Cameroon vs Netherlands 1:2
Denmark vs Japan 2:1
June 24 Bets
Paraguay win 1.40; Bet $5.00
Holland win 1.75; Bet $5.00
Denmark / draw 1.32; Bet $5.00
Bendtner to score 2.65; Bet $5.00
Hedging (Insurance) in Betting
'Cover your ass' Bet: This is part of my betting strategy on certain games / certain futures. The strategy is to make sure that a return on a bet of one which has the lowest priced odds (the favourite), will be enough to cover the the higher priced ones (the smaller probability). Here's where my very limited knowledge on Finance comes into play.
The strategy here is not to 'make as much money as possible' but rather to minimise your losses.
Ie, you put random bets on several 'outcomes', even though you think the 'favourite' outcome is most likely to win. After that, 2 scenarios would most likely happen.
Scenario ONE: 'Favourite outcome' wins, your net position (factoring in outlays into the returns) would most probably be (a) a small loss; (b) or no change in your net position (no win, no lose). Why make such a bet when EVERYONE betted on the favourite, EVERYONE won someting - but you are stuck with either a small loss, or no win no lose? What's the point of betting? But look at scenario two...
Scenario TWO: 'The Favourite losses, the second favourite / third favourite wins' Now here is where you make money. Usually the second favourite, third favourite or someone down the line has odds / returns that are so good, that a win would most likely cover your entire outlay plus more often than not you get somethig extra. And what happens to EVERYONE else? They lose because they betted on the favouorite. What happens to you? You earn a small profit.
So essentially your outcome of doing a 'cover your ass bet' is either a) small loss / no loss; b) reasonable profit. Whereas everyone else's outcome is either a) big win, b) small win c) lose everything. Who has the better 'outcomes' ?
Of course, the 'cover your ass bet' is subject to few constraints. One, you must have some awareness of all the probable outcomes of all scenarios (In football betting, this translates to some knowledge of the teams, their past records, likely scenarios, line-ups etc) . Two, it works well when the outcomes are mutually exclusive (but when they are not, it may work well as well).
Here are some practical example where I have made money using a 'cover your ass' bet
Example one: Holland vs Japan success; Holland v Denmark failure
I was fairly confident of a Hollad win. The odds of a Holland win are only 1.35. I wanted to maximise my returns, so how do I do it?
First of all, I know the scores and the goal-scorers of Holland's friendly in the lead up the world cup. Van Persie scored, I think, 3 or 4 goals in 3 games, and has scored in every single friendly in that break between end of season and the world cup. So therefore I think that if Holland actually scores in a game, it would most likely come from Van Persie.
And what I knew also, Sneijder is in fantastic form for Inter before the friendly. And in the friendlies he has also scored 2 or 3 goals in just 3 or 4 games. So I came to the conclusion if Holland actually scores in a game, it would be likely to be from Van Persie, followed by Sneijder. And Sneijder takes Holland's free kicks, and he takes Holland's penalties. So more chances for him. Plus, Robben wasn't playing - so the goals if they do come, it should come from either one of these players (VP / Sneijder).
So because I thought that if Holland scores it would either be VP or Sneijder - what happens is I put a $5 bet on Van Persie to score (priced @ 2.00); and also put a $5 bet on Sneijder to score (priced @ 3.50).
What happened was Sneijder scored in a 1-0 victory. I got a $5 x 3.50 = $17.50 return. I loss on the Van Persie bet. A net positive return, as my outlay was only $10. Factoring in my total outlay of $10 (for the two bets), my odds were effectively [(17.50-10)/10 ] +1 = 1.75. which is higher than 1.35 for a Holland win.
And what happens if Van Persie scored but Sneijder didn't? $5 x2.00 = $10. No change in my net position as I got back my initial outlay. So what happens is when ONLY VP scores and Sneijder doesn't, you don't lose any money; and vice versa you don't lose money as well, and will make a profit. And what happens if BOTH scored? $5 x 3.5 + $5 x 2.0 = $27.50 .
However, this bet is not without its risk. If both failed to score it would be a net loss of -$10.00 for me. So to make this bet work, you must be extremely confident that both players will score or that the team is extremely reliant on these 2 players more than anyone else to bring in the goals.
This was a succesful bet, but note that I have used the same strategy in Holland vs Denmark game which resulted in a net loss of -$10.00.
Second Example: Top African Team
This I think was a no brainer. In fact it was too easy for me. And much less risk compared to the first example.
First of all the lowest odds before the tournament, I believed belonged to Ivory Coast and that was 3.65.
So that means if you made 3 different but equal bets on 3 different African Teams, and Ivory Coast ended up the Top African Team, you have succesfully 'covered' the losing bets, as 3.65 X$5.00 = $18.25 would cover your 3 separate $5 bets (total = $15.00) on the different teams. And if the second favourite at 4.00 + ended up the Top African Team, and you made 3 bets, you actually receive a positive return factoring in the intial outlay.
And you could even make 4 different bets, and make just a small loss if Ivory Coast do end up top ($20 - $18.25 = $1.75 loss); but if the team with the lowest odds do actually pefrom the best (example some team with a 6.50 payout), you still make a hefty profit. Your bets on the other teams are effectively an 'insurance' = minimising your losses in the event that most favoured team wins.
Of course, if you bet on 3 or 4 teams, you would most probably win very little. So the optimal bet would be betting on 2 teams you think would most likely end up the Top performing African team in this competition (but note, this increases the risk. Finance: Higher returns = higher Risk).
What did I do in the end? I placed two different bets on Ivory Coast 3.65; and Ghana 4.50. I of course took into account the opponents in the groups of all the Africans (eg South Africa has tougher opponents; at the time of bettting Portugal were not doing so well and Nani just got injured; and Serbia was performing very very poorly in friendlies) and also their lead-up to the tournament (Cameroon and Algeria had terrible preparations to the tournament, Cameroon losing many friendlies, and Eto'o in particular was affected by Milla's comments) in making this bet.
So what happens is regardless of which team became the Top African Team (Ivory Coast or Ghana) I will still make a good profit. This was a no brainer considering all the circumstances of the other African teams in the tournament.
Conclusion
Now you understand the underpinnings of my actions in making several bets of in particular categories (eg Top European Team, Top African Team, WC Golden Boot, Player to Score etc). It is not a 100% guaranteed win strategy, but as I've said earlier, the ultimate aim of this strategy is to 'minimise your losses'. Your insurance = the favourite. The 'profit / favourable event' / you win = when the outcome with the lesser probability (the higher odds) prevail.
Hedging
In Finance, there's something we call a 'Hedge'
In finance, a hedge is a position established in one market in an attempt to offset exposure to price fluctuations in some opposite position in another market with the goal of minimizing one's exposure to unwanted risk.
Eg. For example, if you think your that overall share prices are going to go down. You buy a 'put option' (an option to sell at a certain price) on he shares that you currently hold. So when the share prices drops below a certain price, and you have a put option to sell at a price higher than that price. You 'covered' your ass.
It works like insurance - minimising your losses in adverse circumstances.
And I would like to leave you with a GOLDEN RULE in Betting, which is fundamental in the workings of my above strategy
Only Bet What you're Willing to LOSE
very pessimistic view. But this is golden and will probably result improved fortunes for you.
Example, Brazil vs NZ with odds of 1.01. A guaranteed win, making money has never been this easy. You place a $10, 000 bet on Brazil to win an easy $100 win. But... how much would you lose if a draw actually occured? $10,000
So the result of adhering to this fundamental creed is you don't make bets which results in a HUGE loss, or a loss you're not willing to suffer. Everytime you make a bet, think FIRST: how much will I lose if this doesn't work out? AND, think later: how much will I win from this bet?
If you bet to win, you're almost guaranteed to lose. Because no matter how expert you are, it doesn't matter in Casino games, or in football analysis - there is no absolute guarantees. A football pundit , or a mathematician cannot say to you for sure that 'this team will /must win'. It doesn't work that way. If even they can't tell you that for sure, you are in a lesser position to make such definitive statements.
By betting to win, when you're on a losing run, or when you lost on particular game, you fall into the trap of trying to 'win back' (more like 'earn back') the money lost. It doesn't work that way, and is a particularly dangerous way of betting. A win is not absolute, and the mindset of a particular better who bets in such a way is more like 'earning back the lost sums' which just fails the theory of 'probabilities' because 'earning' you can say for sure how much you will win. Gambling = probabilities, there is nothing definitive about gambling.
And if you bet what you're WILLING TO LOSE, you most likely won't fall into the trap of 'Shit, I lost $500 on my last bet... that is way too much, how am I ever going to get back that money?' , more often than not, people would resort to larger bets to 'win' back that money. If however, you bet $100, and don't make such a big deal out of it, you will less likely fall into the trap of being obligated to earn back that sum.
And its this loss minimsation theory that makes my above strategy of 'hedging' work.
And I'm sure this loss minimisation theory would perhaps work for other betting strategies as well, that I'm not aware of.
In here is where the Financial theory comes into play as well, Higher Returns = Greater Risk.
Round up 21-23 June
My, my. 3 days without a round up so I have to dedicate a whole post to that.
Plus, my previous bets at the start of the tournament do come into play now.
June 10 Bets
AFC - NO An AFC Team will not qualify to R16 2.05; Lose $10.00
Group C Winner - USA 5.00 x $5.00 = $25.00
France not to qualify from Group A: 3.15 x $5.00 = $15.75
Group D Grand Total Goals Under 14.5 Goals (12 goals total) 1.87 x $10.00 = $18.60
Total June 10 returns: $49.35
June 21 Bets
Portugal v DPR Half time result Draw 2.30; Lose $5.00
Portugal v DPR First team carded Portugal 2.05; Lose $5.00
Chile v Switzerland Under 2.5 goals 1.45 x $5.00 = $7.25
Spain v Honduras Over 2.5 goals 1.60; Lose $5.00
Total June 21 Returns : -$7.75
June 22 Bets
Gre v Arg ; Arg win 1.40 x $5.00 = $7.00
South Korea / Draw 1.36 x $5.00 = $6.80
South Africa/Draw 1.75 x $5.00 = $8.75
Total June 22 Returns = $22.55
June 23 Bets
Slovenia/draw 2.75; Lose $5.00
Australia/draw 1.82 x $5.00 = $9.10
USA win 1.80 x $5.00 = $9.00
Germany win 1.38 x $5.00 = $6.90
Ttoal June 23 Returns = $20.00
Round -up
Previous Returns + June 10 Returns + June 21 Returns + June 22 Returns + June 23 Returns
$100.20 + $49.35 - $7.75 + $22.55 + $20 = $184.30
How good is that? Especially my June 10 Bets (The USA group winner bet was sweet one with a 5.00 return)
Comments
For June 10 Bets, I still have my dual bet on Ghana and Ivory Coast for Top African Team. :)
Nigeria almost spoiled that bet which was 'guaranteed' a 2.00 return.
Note: I previously used the word 'winnings' but the word 'returns' would me more suitable.
I've taken into account in my calculations Bets lost, but for the bets that I have won, I did not factor in the 'cost' or my 'outlay'.
Will do that at the end of the tournament.
Preview of World Cup Futures and Round 16
World Cup Winner
Argentina 5.00 ; Brazil 5.00; Spain 6.00; Holland 8.00; England 10.00; Germany 10.00; Uruguay 15.00
Bookies have made Argentina and Brazil joint favourites. Holland's are fourth favourites at second place. Uruguay is 7th place.
Holland- Good Bet? No. They will face 2nd place Italy in R16, and if they progress, will then face the winner of Brazil (if they top group) vs Switzerland (Likely, Unless Chile draw their final game); and if they do progress, Uruguay. 3 HUGE opponents on the road to the finals. Unless you think very strongly that either Holland or Brazil will win the world cup (the winner of that game), and put a 'dual bet' on 2 separate bets on Holland and Brazil to win world cup (ie one of them wins world cup, you still will have a positive return in the end) I do not recommend this.
Uruguay I think is worth a bet. Their R16 opponents (Korea) will be too easy, QF opponents of either Ghana/ USA will also be no match for them. In the Semis however, they will face winner of Brazil (if they top group) vs Holland. Winner of that game (Uruguay vs Brazil/Holland) would almost guarantee to win the world cup. But prior to the Mexico game, it waas 34.00, but 15.00 is still a good price.
Argentina - avoid at all cost. see my previous comments.
Top Goal Scorer
Higuain's price went up from 2+ to now 3.75 which I suspect is Villa scoring 2 in the previous gae.
Villa is now second at 4.50. I placed a June 10 Bet when he was priced at 8.00. At 4.50, he is still a reasonable bet, although I wouldn't highly recommend it.
Fabiano comes third at 5.50. This would be a tricky one. If you favour Brazil to enter the finals, it is a reasonable bet. But considering the opponents Brazil could face on the road to the finals : First: Switzerland/Chile , Second: Netherlands/Italy, and Third: Uruguay. Very very tricky, but as I said: think 'five' as your lucky number. Is he able to score 3 more in 5 games? Perhaps. But 3 against the abovesaid opponents? Switzerland, Uruguay and Italy would be extremely difficult to score against.
Forlan comes fourth at 11.00. Its unlucky that I placed a bet when he was priced 6.50 or something. At 11.00 , you have a even better bet. Opponents: South Korea, USA/Ghana, Brazil/Netherlands/Italy/Switzerland/Chile. You are essentially banking on the South Korea, USA/Ghana game to for him to score 2 - 3 goals (not difficult). And hope that he scores just 1 more in the Semis or in the Final. At 11.00, I highly recommend this.
Messi comes fifth at 19.00. A dark horse. BUT I do not think Argentina will reach the Final. Semi Finals if they're lucky. First of all I think Mexico have a good chance of winning R16 game vs them. Then, its England/Germany (QF), then if they do progress, its Spain/Paraguay/Portual (SF).
Thats why I think Argentina have a very small chance of reaching the finals. Rate them poorly for being world cup winners. But in Messi you have a wild card. Its easy to say Argentina will not progress far considering the opponents their likely to come up against. But is it possible for Messi to score 4 goals in a single game involving either England, Germany, Mexico, Spain, Paraguay or Portugal? The answer is YES. So I think Messi @ 19.00 is still worth a bet.
Super Wild Card: Klose @ 41.00. opponents and likely opponents : England (R16), followed by Mexico/Argentina (QF), followed by Spain/Paraguay/Portugal (SF).
Klose current goal tally is ONE. 4 goals in 3 games ? (For golden boot I use FIVE as a threshold) A tall order. Maybe 3, maybe 2... but FOUR?! Score 2 against England, and he needs to score just 2 more. Argentina is easy to score against but that can't be said for the rest of Germany's likely opponents. But i think if Germany do well, he might just be able to make it. And I think that he has easier opponents (to score against) as compared to Fabiano (the hardest) and Villa.
But then... 41.00 is a SUPER return. $5 x 41.00 = $205.00.
Conclusion: I rate the WC golden boot winner (factoring the returns) like this: Forlan (11.00), Villa (4.50), Fabiano (5.50), Messi (19.00) , Klose (41.00).
Preview of R 16
Uruguay vs Korea ; Uru 1.75 Kor 4.55. Nothing surprising there, although Uruguay's odds are lower than what I would like.
Shocking Stuff: Argentina v Mexico; Arg 1.48 Mex 6.85. I'm definately going to bet Mexico/Draw. But, Argentina @ 1.48?!! You gotta be kidding me, that is way too low.
Plus, my previous bets at the start of the tournament do come into play now.
June 10 Bets
AFC - NO An AFC Team will not qualify to R16 2.05; Lose $10.00
Group C Winner - USA 5.00 x $5.00 = $25.00
France not to qualify from Group A: 3.15 x $5.00 = $15.75
Group D Grand Total Goals Under 14.5 Goals (12 goals total) 1.87 x $10.00 = $18.60
Total June 10 returns: $49.35
June 21 Bets
Portugal v DPR Half time result Draw 2.30; Lose $5.00
Portugal v DPR First team carded Portugal 2.05; Lose $5.00
Chile v Switzerland Under 2.5 goals 1.45 x $5.00 = $7.25
Spain v Honduras Over 2.5 goals 1.60; Lose $5.00
Total June 21 Returns : -$7.75
June 22 Bets
Gre v Arg ; Arg win 1.40 x $5.00 = $7.00
South Korea / Draw 1.36 x $5.00 = $6.80
South Africa/Draw 1.75 x $5.00 = $8.75
Total June 22 Returns = $22.55
June 23 Bets
Slovenia/draw 2.75; Lose $5.00
Australia/draw 1.82 x $5.00 = $9.10
USA win 1.80 x $5.00 = $9.00
Germany win 1.38 x $5.00 = $6.90
Ttoal June 23 Returns = $20.00
Round -up
Previous Returns + June 10 Returns + June 21 Returns + June 22 Returns + June 23 Returns
$100.20 + $49.35 - $7.75 + $22.55 + $20 = $184.30
How good is that? Especially my June 10 Bets (The USA group winner bet was sweet one with a 5.00 return)
Comments
For June 10 Bets, I still have my dual bet on Ghana and Ivory Coast for Top African Team. :)
Nigeria almost spoiled that bet which was 'guaranteed' a 2.00 return.
Note: I previously used the word 'winnings' but the word 'returns' would me more suitable.
I've taken into account in my calculations Bets lost, but for the bets that I have won, I did not factor in the 'cost' or my 'outlay'.
Will do that at the end of the tournament.
Preview of World Cup Futures and Round 16
World Cup Winner
Argentina 5.00 ; Brazil 5.00; Spain 6.00; Holland 8.00; England 10.00; Germany 10.00; Uruguay 15.00
Bookies have made Argentina and Brazil joint favourites. Holland's are fourth favourites at second place. Uruguay is 7th place.
Holland- Good Bet? No. They will face 2nd place Italy in R16, and if they progress, will then face the winner of Brazil (if they top group) vs Switzerland (Likely, Unless Chile draw their final game); and if they do progress, Uruguay. 3 HUGE opponents on the road to the finals. Unless you think very strongly that either Holland or Brazil will win the world cup (the winner of that game), and put a 'dual bet' on 2 separate bets on Holland and Brazil to win world cup (ie one of them wins world cup, you still will have a positive return in the end) I do not recommend this.
Uruguay I think is worth a bet. Their R16 opponents (Korea) will be too easy, QF opponents of either Ghana/ USA will also be no match for them. In the Semis however, they will face winner of Brazil (if they top group) vs Holland. Winner of that game (Uruguay vs Brazil/Holland) would almost guarantee to win the world cup. But prior to the Mexico game, it waas 34.00, but 15.00 is still a good price.
Argentina - avoid at all cost. see my previous comments.
Top Goal Scorer
Higuain's price went up from 2+ to now 3.75 which I suspect is Villa scoring 2 in the previous gae.
Villa is now second at 4.50. I placed a June 10 Bet when he was priced at 8.00. At 4.50, he is still a reasonable bet, although I wouldn't highly recommend it.
Fabiano comes third at 5.50. This would be a tricky one. If you favour Brazil to enter the finals, it is a reasonable bet. But considering the opponents Brazil could face on the road to the finals : First: Switzerland/Chile , Second: Netherlands/Italy, and Third: Uruguay. Very very tricky, but as I said: think 'five' as your lucky number. Is he able to score 3 more in 5 games? Perhaps. But 3 against the abovesaid opponents? Switzerland, Uruguay and Italy would be extremely difficult to score against.
Forlan comes fourth at 11.00. Its unlucky that I placed a bet when he was priced 6.50 or something. At 11.00 , you have a even better bet. Opponents: South Korea, USA/Ghana, Brazil/Netherlands/Italy/Switzerland/Chile. You are essentially banking on the South Korea, USA/Ghana game to for him to score 2 - 3 goals (not difficult). And hope that he scores just 1 more in the Semis or in the Final. At 11.00, I highly recommend this.
Messi comes fifth at 19.00. A dark horse. BUT I do not think Argentina will reach the Final. Semi Finals if they're lucky. First of all I think Mexico have a good chance of winning R16 game vs them. Then, its England/Germany (QF), then if they do progress, its Spain/Paraguay/Portual (SF).
Thats why I think Argentina have a very small chance of reaching the finals. Rate them poorly for being world cup winners. But in Messi you have a wild card. Its easy to say Argentina will not progress far considering the opponents their likely to come up against. But is it possible for Messi to score 4 goals in a single game involving either England, Germany, Mexico, Spain, Paraguay or Portugal? The answer is YES. So I think Messi @ 19.00 is still worth a bet.
Super Wild Card: Klose @ 41.00. opponents and likely opponents : England (R16), followed by Mexico/Argentina (QF), followed by Spain/Paraguay/Portugal (SF).
Klose current goal tally is ONE. 4 goals in 3 games ? (For golden boot I use FIVE as a threshold) A tall order. Maybe 3, maybe 2... but FOUR?! Score 2 against England, and he needs to score just 2 more. Argentina is easy to score against but that can't be said for the rest of Germany's likely opponents. But i think if Germany do well, he might just be able to make it. And I think that he has easier opponents (to score against) as compared to Fabiano (the hardest) and Villa.
But then... 41.00 is a SUPER return. $5 x 41.00 = $205.00.
Conclusion: I rate the WC golden boot winner (factoring the returns) like this: Forlan (11.00), Villa (4.50), Fabiano (5.50), Messi (19.00) , Klose (41.00).
Preview of R 16
Uruguay vs Korea ; Uru 1.75 Kor 4.55. Nothing surprising there, although Uruguay's odds are lower than what I would like.
Shocking Stuff: Argentina v Mexico; Arg 1.48 Mex 6.85. I'm definately going to bet Mexico/Draw. But, Argentina @ 1.48?!! You gotta be kidding me, that is way too low.
23 June
I am far too tired to do a round-up of the past 2 days today.
But yesterday was generally a good day. My analysis about the games was right, and my bets were good.
June 23 Predictions
USA v Algeria 2:1
England v Slovenia 1:2
Australia v Serbia 2:1
Germany v Ghana 3:1
No clean sheets for all games. A first for me.
June 23 Bets
Slovenia/draw 2.75; Bet $5.00
Australia/draw 1.82; Bet $5.00
USA win 1.80; Bet $5.00
Germany win 1.38; Bet $5.00
Group C
Slovenia to win / draw the game. Top the group.
USA to win the game. 2nd position.
(anothing thing: Before the tournament I predicted France to come second, and England to come second; everyone predicted they both top their groups - so I was generally 'more correct' than everyone else)
Group D
Sentiments cloud my judgment. Think its difficult, but not impossible for Australia to qualify.
Preferred result Germany win 3:0; Australia win 2:0. and Australia go through.
And it's nice to have a little drama. So I'm hoping for the above scores tonight so do not expect me to give an unbiased judgment / prediction re this group.
And Re Group A and Group B
How close were South Africa and Nigeria from qualifying? See ? What did I tell you?
Had France not scored that 1 goal, South Africa scored another (3:0) ; and Uruguay actually score 2 against Mexico (2:0) - do you know that it's South Africa going through at second place?
And if the Argentina game was 2-0, and Nigeria ended up beating South Korea 2-1 or 3-2 or 1-0, Its Nigeria that come second in the group! with 3 points !
Its amazing how teams from Group B and Italy's group could potentially qualify with just 3 points, when Chile are at risk of not going through the first round after winning their first 2 games, keeping 2 clean sheets, and having 6 points (goal difference).
Analaysis of Other groups tomorrow.
But yesterday was generally a good day. My analysis about the games was right, and my bets were good.
June 23 Predictions
USA v Algeria 2:1
England v Slovenia 1:2
Australia v Serbia 2:1
Germany v Ghana 3:1
No clean sheets for all games. A first for me.
June 23 Bets
Slovenia/draw 2.75; Bet $5.00
Australia/draw 1.82; Bet $5.00
USA win 1.80; Bet $5.00
Germany win 1.38; Bet $5.00
Group C
Slovenia to win / draw the game. Top the group.
USA to win the game. 2nd position.
(anothing thing: Before the tournament I predicted France to come second, and England to come second; everyone predicted they both top their groups - so I was generally 'more correct' than everyone else)
Group D
Sentiments cloud my judgment. Think its difficult, but not impossible for Australia to qualify.
Preferred result Germany win 3:0; Australia win 2:0. and Australia go through.
And it's nice to have a little drama. So I'm hoping for the above scores tonight so do not expect me to give an unbiased judgment / prediction re this group.
And Re Group A and Group B
How close were South Africa and Nigeria from qualifying? See ? What did I tell you?
Had France not scored that 1 goal, South Africa scored another (3:0) ; and Uruguay actually score 2 against Mexico (2:0) - do you know that it's South Africa going through at second place?
And if the Argentina game was 2-0, and Nigeria ended up beating South Korea 2-1 or 3-2 or 1-0, Its Nigeria that come second in the group! with 3 points !
Its amazing how teams from Group B and Italy's group could potentially qualify with just 3 points, when Chile are at risk of not going through the first round after winning their first 2 games, keeping 2 clean sheets, and having 6 points (goal difference).
Analaysis of Other groups tomorrow.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
June 23
No time for round-ups cos paper tomorrow.
I know the RSA FRA, URU MEX games are underway. but these were my bets before the game (I have proof)
South Africa/Draw 1.75 ; Bet $5.00
See my earlier analysis as to why I was confident of RSA's chances.
Shockingly No Uru/Draw Bets available at TAB. I was fairly confident that URU would win / draw the game (see my earlier analysis). And outright was 4.00 for URU to win. I wans't brave enough to make that bet. Looks like I missed out.
Gre v Arg ; Arg win 1.40; Bet $5.00
South Korea / Draw 1.36; Bet $5.00
My predictions before the game:
RSA v FRA 1:0
URU v MEX 2:2
ARG v GRE 3:1
KOR v NIG 1:0
I know the RSA FRA, URU MEX games are underway. but these were my bets before the game (I have proof)
South Africa/Draw 1.75 ; Bet $5.00
See my earlier analysis as to why I was confident of RSA's chances.
Shockingly No Uru/Draw Bets available at TAB. I was fairly confident that URU would win / draw the game (see my earlier analysis). And outright was 4.00 for URU to win. I wans't brave enough to make that bet. Looks like I missed out.
Gre v Arg ; Arg win 1.40; Bet $5.00
South Korea / Draw 1.36; Bet $5.00
My predictions before the game:
RSA v FRA 1:0
URU v MEX 2:2
ARG v GRE 3:1
KOR v NIG 1:0
Monday, June 21, 2010
Maradona resting Messi?
I remembered that I said earlier he won't. Argentina's fitness people have said Messi is tired, Messi have been overworked by Barcelona, and Maradona himself said that Guardiola never rested or subs Messi but does so for the rest of his squad.
Rather strange that someone will refuse to rest Messi if that's the evaluation of Messi's current fitness?
And if you noticed, Messi has not been subbed during the past 2 World Cup games. Shockingly not subbed during the 4-1 victory over Korea which he played so well. Normally when teams are clearly in the lead, and have an important fixture coming up, the best performing player or most important player, particularly if he is an attacker, will come off. But that didn't happen. This is particularly strange since the Argentinian camp have came out and said so often that Messi have been overworked during the season.
The reason why Maradona will not rest Messi (and I predict that more than half of the starting XI will be rested for the Greece game) or refuse to sub Messi, is because Maradona is jealous of Messi.
Marodona is particularly jealous of Messi because he fears that Messi would overtake his status in Argentinian football and doesn't like Messi getting all the attention he is receiving. There is plenty of evidence of this if you try to search the internet for it. And to play Messi in an absolutely unnecessary manner against Greece, with statements that his fitness is not satisfactory, the evidence is telling. But to not play Messi altogether , eg dropping him from the squad or have him sit the bench for games, would be ridiculous, so he plays him. And Maradona knows that the whole team depends on him. But to play Messi in every single game (and especially the Greece game) is more than ridiculous, its tragic.
He will play the poor boy against Greece, which is completely unnecessary and I think he will not sub Messi in that game. The poor boy will be playing the full 90 minutes of every single game Argentina will play in this world cup. The poor boy is being slaughtered for the world to see.
Rather strange that someone will refuse to rest Messi if that's the evaluation of Messi's current fitness?
And if you noticed, Messi has not been subbed during the past 2 World Cup games. Shockingly not subbed during the 4-1 victory over Korea which he played so well. Normally when teams are clearly in the lead, and have an important fixture coming up, the best performing player or most important player, particularly if he is an attacker, will come off. But that didn't happen. This is particularly strange since the Argentinian camp have came out and said so often that Messi have been overworked during the season.
The reason why Maradona will not rest Messi (and I predict that more than half of the starting XI will be rested for the Greece game) or refuse to sub Messi, is because Maradona is jealous of Messi.
Marodona is particularly jealous of Messi because he fears that Messi would overtake his status in Argentinian football and doesn't like Messi getting all the attention he is receiving. There is plenty of evidence of this if you try to search the internet for it. And to play Messi in an absolutely unnecessary manner against Greece, with statements that his fitness is not satisfactory, the evidence is telling. But to not play Messi altogether , eg dropping him from the squad or have him sit the bench for games, would be ridiculous, so he plays him. And Maradona knows that the whole team depends on him. But to play Messi in every single game (and especially the Greece game) is more than ridiculous, its tragic.
He will play the poor boy against Greece, which is completely unnecessary and I think he will not sub Messi in that game. The poor boy will be playing the full 90 minutes of every single game Argentina will play in this world cup. The poor boy is being slaughtered for the world to see.
Brazil
Spain is critized for playing 2 holding midfielders - but Brazil have Gilberto Silva and Melo. So why is Spain doing it wrong? Everyone is arguing for Spain to drop one of their defensive midfielders but no one is saying anything about Brazil. But I think 2 defensive midfielders is not particularly a bad idea. You will find the particular strength of playing 2 defensive midfielders below.
Many people doubted Brazil's credentials when they are aware that Gilberto Silva is in their starting 11. But like I mentioned before, International Football is not about individuals, or like for like comparison, but about teams.
Lucio
I find two players from Brazil and Spain that are like for like substitutes. Lucio and Pique. I initially thought that perhaps Lucio's forwards runs, especially with the ball at feet, would be a bit risky and dangerous and wondered if it will cost Brazil (note the similarity with the style of play with Pique). But an observation is that whenever Lucio makes his forward runs bringing the ball from the back, Gilberto Silva retreats deeper and slots into his position in the centre of defence.
I think that Lucio's forwards runs would hurt teams immensely. Opposing teams have two options when Lucio does this 1. Close Lucio down with your midfield (particularly with your defensive midfielders) but this creates space for Brazil's central attackers of Kaka and Elano to exploit and leave them completely unmarked. 2. Back off, retreat, stand-off but this enables Brazil's attackers to move so much closer to your goal and would result your defence playing much deeper than desired. And to understand the effectiveness of this, look at Beckenbauer's goals. He brings the ball out of defence, sometimes going all the way to the opposition goal and shoot OR he brings it up so high upfield that just one pass would result in a West Germany goal - all the Defenders / Midfield just back off and allowing him all the space he needs. Lucio's runs create confusion, and the best thing about it is that Brazil cover his position with Gilberto.
With Spain, when Pique runs forward, neither Xabi nor Busquets take up his position. Effectively overcrowding the midfield, and leaving confusion for Spain's full-backs whether or not to go forward to support the attack or cover the defence.
The Full-backs
Brazil's attacking full backs are more effective than Spain's. Spain have Ramos and Capdevilla running upfield. But Spain's danger again lies in the position of their 2 Deep lying midfielders. Xabi and Busquets do not retreat but maintain their forward positions whenever the Spanish full backs run forward. Brazil however, have Gilberto and Melo respectively moving in closer towards the respective side-lines, covering the position of Bastos and Maicon. And their midfield / attack of Robinho, Kaka, Fabiano and Elano move further infield. Forcing the opposition defence's shape to be much more narrower. It leaves a dilemma for the opposition full-backs, do we follow Robinho and Elano in-field or do we close down the attacking full backs of Brazil ? If you take notice, look how narrow Brazil's attackers play. They effectively force the opposition's shape much narrower, leaving space for the full-backs to run. For Spain however, Xabi and Busquets continue to stay at where their positions are in the middle of the park, playing further upfront sometimes. Making the midfield very congested and this doesn't create any space for themselves, and leaving the back totally exposed.
The Attack
I think Spain's ultimate weakness is when playing the lone-striker, they are way to predictable. Spain's forwards do not drop back to hold up the ball or to support midfield play. And when they do (which is rare), Iniesta and Silva are not doing enough to make forward runs to support attack. And if Spain decides to play 4-4-2 (which they most likely will against Honduras), their strikers play too close to each other. Spain's 4-4-2 is deployed for one of the striker to make runs dragging defenders with him, and allowing the other space. Useful, but what if the opposition plays with a back 3 or a defensive midfielder very close to the backline? It wouldn't really work.
Brazil however, have flexibility in their forwards. Robinho, Kaka and Fabiano triangle interchange their positions. Robinho playing further upfield, Kaka slightly deeper than him, and Elano slightly deeper than Kaka. The lack of flexibility in the front as I have discussed earlier is rather dangerous. Netherlands do not have this problem because of the Van Persie role. Arguably Fabregas is better at making upfield runs than Xavi, but I do not think that warrants replacing Iniesta or Xavi with Fabregas.
Defending against Brazil
How do you defend against Brazil? Their full backs are very dangerous. So it would be a good idea to nullify their forward runs with your wingers. By pushing your wingers / inside forwards upfield (think Rooney and Park : Man Utd vs Barcelona 2008) , Brazil arguably are not allowed to play their full backs further upfield as they would like. By disabling their full backs, it would to some extent, leave all the attacking responsibility to Robinho, Kaka, Elano and Fabiano. As Silva and Melo (lesser) rarely run forward to support the attack. So if you play with 2 holding midfielders, it will look more like 6 vs 4(4 defenders + 2 holding midfielders; Brazil = 4). And because of Brazil's attackers tendency to play so narrowly (which actually helps you if you defend this way), it makes it really congested in the middle of the park. And when Either one of Robinho, Elano drifts wide, they more likely than not only have Fabiano and Kaka in the middle against your 2 centrebacks and 2 holding midfielders. They would predictably (or likely) , have Melo or Lucio come up further. And if so, this leaves them completely exposed at the back (think Switzerland's goal vs Spain).
Attacking Brazil
So how do you attack them? Counter (North Korea)? Your opportunity to counter comes from 2 scenarios: 1. When the above suggestion for defending occurs, the middle of the park would be pretty empty. This requires your central striker to be particularly adept at holding up play, waiting for support. (An advantage of 3-4-3 : 2 of your strikers on either flansk push their full-backs deeper your central midfield plays deep, but you have 2 extra players on the wings if required from your 4 member midfield); 2. Another is by exploiting their full-backs forward positions. This would be a bit harder if you're using your wingers to keep them back from the earlier suggestion. Because their full-backs are forced to play closer to goal, and they therefore have more numbers at the back. I think a 3-4-3 would be useful where your forwards are able to drift wide and not play centrally (see New Zealand) and your forwards may be able to nullify their wing backs. But the danger with NZ's 3-4-3 is it would fail horribly if the opposition attackers do not play centrally and able to drift wide. Italy's forwards play too close to each other in the centre, and soes do Spain - but not Brazil. Their attackers would drag your centrebacks wider and leave you exposed in the middle. What you need to execute an effective 3-4-3 against Brazil / Netherlands where their attackers drift wide is to have equally adept defensive midfielders who are capable of playing central of defense, playing there when one of the centre backs gets dragged wide or alternatively, have your wide midfielders to support the defending (But when the forward drifts wide, your wide midfielder might not have no time to come back and defend it the centre-back's position is fixed, so you effectively have your wide midfielder playing much deeper fearing this would happen effectively resulting in North Korea's 5-3-2. The intelligent play of the forwards - when to drift wide and when to move infield could hurt you badly. A flexible 3-4-3 with the defensive responsibilities falling to the wide players would be very risky in this case) However North Korea's rigid 5-3-2 argualy was effective in shutting out Fabiano, Kaka, Elano and Robinho, but leaves them completely exposed on the flanks for the Brazilian full-backs to exploit as Brazil's attackers drag the full-backs infield. A 3-4-3 would provide greater balance. But do note that playing a back three, sometimes just ends up cancelling each other out (Uruguay vs France) , it would help you to defend effectively, but your attack may be a bit too isolated. It may not help you win games, but it would help you to not lose.
I think the only way to at least nullify Brazil is to play with 3 forwards or at least have your attacking midfielders play wide. And ensure you pack your players in front of the goal . Nullifying Brazil is perhaps possible, but what is harder is actually doing some damage to them.
And note that succesful sides in this world cup have used 3 forwards or at least a midfield and striker combination that LOOKs like 3 forwards: Mexico, Uruguay, Netherlands, Brazil, and to a certain extent Japan. And note my emphasis of playing forwards capable of holding up play or operating or drifting wide to allow the other attackers space, that is why Japan used a midfielder as a lone striker.
I must conclude that neither of my suggestions were particularly effective, effective perhaps defensively but it wouldn't help you win games and takes some really good players to execute. And partly because Brazil's formation and players are so effective and their attack particularly so pacey. Thats why Brazil are so hard to beat. Defending against them is no easy task as well because of the runs of their attackers. Thats why Brazil are my favourites to win the world Cup.
Many people doubted Brazil's credentials when they are aware that Gilberto Silva is in their starting 11. But like I mentioned before, International Football is not about individuals, or like for like comparison, but about teams.
Lucio
I find two players from Brazil and Spain that are like for like substitutes. Lucio and Pique. I initially thought that perhaps Lucio's forwards runs, especially with the ball at feet, would be a bit risky and dangerous and wondered if it will cost Brazil (note the similarity with the style of play with Pique). But an observation is that whenever Lucio makes his forward runs bringing the ball from the back, Gilberto Silva retreats deeper and slots into his position in the centre of defence.
I think that Lucio's forwards runs would hurt teams immensely. Opposing teams have two options when Lucio does this 1. Close Lucio down with your midfield (particularly with your defensive midfielders) but this creates space for Brazil's central attackers of Kaka and Elano to exploit and leave them completely unmarked. 2. Back off, retreat, stand-off but this enables Brazil's attackers to move so much closer to your goal and would result your defence playing much deeper than desired. And to understand the effectiveness of this, look at Beckenbauer's goals. He brings the ball out of defence, sometimes going all the way to the opposition goal and shoot OR he brings it up so high upfield that just one pass would result in a West Germany goal - all the Defenders / Midfield just back off and allowing him all the space he needs. Lucio's runs create confusion, and the best thing about it is that Brazil cover his position with Gilberto.
With Spain, when Pique runs forward, neither Xabi nor Busquets take up his position. Effectively overcrowding the midfield, and leaving confusion for Spain's full-backs whether or not to go forward to support the attack or cover the defence.
The Full-backs
Brazil's attacking full backs are more effective than Spain's. Spain have Ramos and Capdevilla running upfield. But Spain's danger again lies in the position of their 2 Deep lying midfielders. Xabi and Busquets do not retreat but maintain their forward positions whenever the Spanish full backs run forward. Brazil however, have Gilberto and Melo respectively moving in closer towards the respective side-lines, covering the position of Bastos and Maicon. And their midfield / attack of Robinho, Kaka, Fabiano and Elano move further infield. Forcing the opposition defence's shape to be much more narrower. It leaves a dilemma for the opposition full-backs, do we follow Robinho and Elano in-field or do we close down the attacking full backs of Brazil ? If you take notice, look how narrow Brazil's attackers play. They effectively force the opposition's shape much narrower, leaving space for the full-backs to run. For Spain however, Xabi and Busquets continue to stay at where their positions are in the middle of the park, playing further upfront sometimes. Making the midfield very congested and this doesn't create any space for themselves, and leaving the back totally exposed.
The Attack
I think Spain's ultimate weakness is when playing the lone-striker, they are way to predictable. Spain's forwards do not drop back to hold up the ball or to support midfield play. And when they do (which is rare), Iniesta and Silva are not doing enough to make forward runs to support attack. And if Spain decides to play 4-4-2 (which they most likely will against Honduras), their strikers play too close to each other. Spain's 4-4-2 is deployed for one of the striker to make runs dragging defenders with him, and allowing the other space. Useful, but what if the opposition plays with a back 3 or a defensive midfielder very close to the backline? It wouldn't really work.
Brazil however, have flexibility in their forwards. Robinho, Kaka and Fabiano triangle interchange their positions. Robinho playing further upfield, Kaka slightly deeper than him, and Elano slightly deeper than Kaka. The lack of flexibility in the front as I have discussed earlier is rather dangerous. Netherlands do not have this problem because of the Van Persie role. Arguably Fabregas is better at making upfield runs than Xavi, but I do not think that warrants replacing Iniesta or Xavi with Fabregas.
Defending against Brazil
How do you defend against Brazil? Their full backs are very dangerous. So it would be a good idea to nullify their forward runs with your wingers. By pushing your wingers / inside forwards upfield (think Rooney and Park : Man Utd vs Barcelona 2008) , Brazil arguably are not allowed to play their full backs further upfield as they would like. By disabling their full backs, it would to some extent, leave all the attacking responsibility to Robinho, Kaka, Elano and Fabiano. As Silva and Melo (lesser) rarely run forward to support the attack. So if you play with 2 holding midfielders, it will look more like 6 vs 4(4 defenders + 2 holding midfielders; Brazil = 4). And because of Brazil's attackers tendency to play so narrowly (which actually helps you if you defend this way), it makes it really congested in the middle of the park. And when Either one of Robinho, Elano drifts wide, they more likely than not only have Fabiano and Kaka in the middle against your 2 centrebacks and 2 holding midfielders. They would predictably (or likely) , have Melo or Lucio come up further. And if so, this leaves them completely exposed at the back (think Switzerland's goal vs Spain).
Attacking Brazil
So how do you attack them? Counter (North Korea)? Your opportunity to counter comes from 2 scenarios: 1. When the above suggestion for defending occurs, the middle of the park would be pretty empty. This requires your central striker to be particularly adept at holding up play, waiting for support. (An advantage of 3-4-3 : 2 of your strikers on either flansk push their full-backs deeper your central midfield plays deep, but you have 2 extra players on the wings if required from your 4 member midfield); 2. Another is by exploiting their full-backs forward positions. This would be a bit harder if you're using your wingers to keep them back from the earlier suggestion. Because their full-backs are forced to play closer to goal, and they therefore have more numbers at the back. I think a 3-4-3 would be useful where your forwards are able to drift wide and not play centrally (see New Zealand) and your forwards may be able to nullify their wing backs. But the danger with NZ's 3-4-3 is it would fail horribly if the opposition attackers do not play centrally and able to drift wide. Italy's forwards play too close to each other in the centre, and soes do Spain - but not Brazil. Their attackers would drag your centrebacks wider and leave you exposed in the middle. What you need to execute an effective 3-4-3 against Brazil / Netherlands where their attackers drift wide is to have equally adept defensive midfielders who are capable of playing central of defense, playing there when one of the centre backs gets dragged wide or alternatively, have your wide midfielders to support the defending (But when the forward drifts wide, your wide midfielder might not have no time to come back and defend it the centre-back's position is fixed, so you effectively have your wide midfielder playing much deeper fearing this would happen effectively resulting in North Korea's 5-3-2. The intelligent play of the forwards - when to drift wide and when to move infield could hurt you badly. A flexible 3-4-3 with the defensive responsibilities falling to the wide players would be very risky in this case) However North Korea's rigid 5-3-2 argualy was effective in shutting out Fabiano, Kaka, Elano and Robinho, but leaves them completely exposed on the flanks for the Brazilian full-backs to exploit as Brazil's attackers drag the full-backs infield. A 3-4-3 would provide greater balance. But do note that playing a back three, sometimes just ends up cancelling each other out (Uruguay vs France) , it would help you to defend effectively, but your attack may be a bit too isolated. It may not help you win games, but it would help you to not lose.
I think the only way to at least nullify Brazil is to play with 3 forwards or at least have your attacking midfielders play wide. And ensure you pack your players in front of the goal . Nullifying Brazil is perhaps possible, but what is harder is actually doing some damage to them.
And note that succesful sides in this world cup have used 3 forwards or at least a midfield and striker combination that LOOKs like 3 forwards: Mexico, Uruguay, Netherlands, Brazil, and to a certain extent Japan. And note my emphasis of playing forwards capable of holding up play or operating or drifting wide to allow the other attackers space, that is why Japan used a midfielder as a lone striker.
I must conclude that neither of my suggestions were particularly effective, effective perhaps defensively but it wouldn't help you win games and takes some really good players to execute. And partly because Brazil's formation and players are so effective and their attack particularly so pacey. Thats why Brazil are so hard to beat. Defending against them is no easy task as well because of the runs of their attackers. Thats why Brazil are my favourites to win the world Cup.
21 June
20 June Round - up
Brazil v Ivory Coast; Brazil win 1.62 x $5.00 = $8.10
Italy v NZ; Under 3.5 goals 1.28 x $5.00 = $6.40
Previous Winnings + June 19 Winnings = $100.20+ $14.50= $114.70
Comments re 20 June
now what did I tell you earlier about Brazil ? But too be honest Ivory Coast dissapointed me greatly. Majestic performance against portugal, typical African lack of discipline against Brazil. It will cost them if they don't improve. Prediction was 2-1 Brazil so I came close.
Great result for NZ. I predicted 1-0 so I came close as well. But unfortunately it will not be enough to send them through. Last game against the excellent Paraguay.
21 June Predictions
North Korea v Portual 1:2 (I do hope North Korea win or draw this game)
Chile v Switzerland 1:0 (The most attacking side vs the most defensive side; Switzerland will do well to get a draw and very high chance of qualifying if they do)
Spain v Honduras 3:1
Comments re North Korea v Portugal
I am worried for the North Koreans. Brazil treated them with respect and the gamemanship in that game was excellent. Against Portugal, the diving piece of shit will probably bewilder and confuse the innocent North Koreans not because of his skills and technique, but because of his fucking antics and theatrics. Fuck you Ronaldo. I am worried the North Koreans will be so confused and don't know what to make of it and it will distract them to submission.
Comments re Chile v Switzerland
I think Hitzfield will aim for a draw here. It's possible if they played the way they did against Spain. A draw here and a win against Honduras would make Switzerland top of their group. Betting on Switzerland to top the Group is not such a bad idea given that it's achievable.
June 21 Bets
Portugal v DPR Half time result Draw 2.30; Bet $5.00
Portugal v DPR First team carded Portugal 2.05; Bet $5.00
Chile v Switzerland Under 2.5 goals 1.45; Bet $5.00
Spain v Honduras Over 2.5 goals 1.60; Bet $5.00
WC top Scorer Fabiano 4.50; Bet $5.00
Saturday, June 19, 2010
June 20
June 19 Round up (Back to winning ways)
June 20 Predictions
Slovakia vs Paraguay 1:2
Italy v New Zealand 1:0
Brazil v Ivory Coast 2:1
June 20 Bets (conservative)
Brazil v Ivory Coast; Brazil win 1.62; Bet $5.00
Italy v NZ; Under 3.5 goals 1.28; Bet $5.00
Forlan world cup top-scorer 6.50; Bet $5.00
ermm.. that's it. Sorry.
Holland v Japan: Player to Score Van Persie 2.00; Lost $5.00
Holland v Japan: Player to Score Sneijder 3.50 x $5.00 = $17.50
Holland v Japan: Holland win 1.35 x $5.00 = $6.75
Denmark v Cameroon: Denmark/draw 1.43 x $5.00 = $7.15
Holland v Japan: Player to Score Sneijder 3.50 x $5.00 = $17.50
Holland v Japan: Holland win 1.35 x $5.00 = $6.75
Denmark v Cameroon: Denmark/draw 1.43 x $5.00 = $7.15
Total June 19 Winnings = $26.40
Previous Winnings + June 19 Winnings = $73.80 + $26.40 = $100.20
June 20 Predictions
Slovakia vs Paraguay 1:2
Italy v New Zealand 1:0
Brazil v Ivory Coast 2:1
June 20 Bets (conservative)
Brazil v Ivory Coast; Brazil win 1.62; Bet $5.00
Italy v NZ; Under 3.5 goals 1.28; Bet $5.00
Forlan world cup top-scorer 6.50; Bet $5.00
ermm.. that's it. Sorry.
World Cup View
Netherlands, and England
I remember before the start of the world cup i fancy netherlands to reach at least the quarters. And I always thought they were good enough. My prediction was that they will only crash out in the Semis if they meet Brazil (and if Brazil to top its group). Why will they go out to Brazil? Because Brazil are the more efficient team. And if they beat Brazil, the chances of them reaching finals is extremely strong. But they would most likely crash out on penalties (Although they're team has an abundance of penalty takers, Netherlands don't do well in penalties - for penalty-shoot outs history plays a part).
And another reason why they would go far in the world cup, is that the chances of them meeting Germany is very weak unless one of these teams come second in their respective groups. I still do not doubt Germany will top the group. The Dutch never win the Germans.
Why Netherlands? The doubts most people have is that they have a lack of quality in their defenders. I never rated their defence too highly, but I never thought they're the worst. Before the world cup I can easily come up with teams with worse defenders than the Dutch - England, Argentina, Mexico, African teams, Asian teams. And better defences - Brazil, USA, Greece, Italy, Germany. But now the teams with better defences - Uruguay, Brazil, Italy, Switzerland (provided Senderos doesn't play), USA.
I never rated Spain's defence highly. People normally ask me who does the Dutch have? who does the Spanish have? But for national teams, it's not the name that counts but the team. Spain have Pique, Puyol, Ramos and Capdevilla. Individually they are among the best in the world. And so does the Englsih. But as national teams, I never rated them both highly. The English have conceded A LOT during qualifying. And the Spanish almost never kept a clean sheet regardless of who the opposition is.
But to be honest, I never thought the Dutch team are better than the Spanish. And I still don't.
One reason for this Dutch team's success is their 4-2-3-1 formation. And I rate them highly because Van Persie is their striker. On direct comparison Van Persie loses out to Messi, Rooney, Robinho, Villa, Torres, Forlan etc. But the reason why Van Persie is so important is because he fits in the system well. He is a more 'complete' footballer than the rest. No, he can't defend for shit. But he slots into midfield or the wings perfectly, holds up the ball, and allows the midfield trio to come in to support. It's the fluidity of Netherland's front 3 or front 4 that makes it work. Van persie can drift to the either side of the flanks, and is particular effective when cutting inside from the right.
My suggestion earlier that England play 4-2-3-1 is sort of modelled on the Brazil formation and Dutch formation. But more on the Dutch, because arguably Rooney can play the van persie role very well, and the interchangeability of the front 4 (Sneijder, Van der vaart, Van Persie, Kuyt - compared to - Joe Cole, Milner / Glen Johnson, Rooney, Gerrard) is more direct substitute than the Brazil which is arguably more rigid - in terms of position. The difference between the Brazil 4-2-3-1 and the Dutch 4-2-3-1 is the Brazil uses this formation to attack on the counter. But the Dutch 4-2-3-1 's strength is in the interchangeability of the front 4. Sneijder ,VDV, Kuyt can easily become second strikers or drift to the wing, the same can be said for the English.
The Spanish
I will say that from the start, I have never written off the Spanish chances. I still don't actually. But in my initial predictions in the progress chart (twice - the first one wrong). For my wrongly positioned world cup chart I predicted that the Spanish wouldn't reach the finals because they would meet Brazil in the KO stages. The reason why they will go out to Brazil is because Brazil is more efficient and the Spanish do not do well against efficient / defensive teams. And especially that the Brazilians hit teams on the counter very very quick. When I revised my chart and do it the right way, I predicted that the Finals would be Spain vs Brazil. The reason why the Spanish would reach the finals is because they will not meet Brazil or Germany in the KO stages.
The Spanish play the 4-2-3-1 which is effective in its own right. The 4-2-3-1 is supposed to be a fluid formation. It has proved effective for the Spanish, and I believed that this is a formation to be used by the Spanish, but we see from this world cup that the 4-2-3-1 is actually Spain's weakness. Because the lone-striker up front D Villa or Torres. Unlike Rooney or RVP, Villa and Torres are predictable and they only lead the line. Whereas Rooney / RVP can come in deeper, or drift to the wings. The rigidity of Spain's 4-2-3-1 Results in less movement / interchangeability in the final third. And Torres / Villa 's position are fixed in the front. So arguably the interchangeability is between the front 3 of Xavi, Iniesta and Silva. Unlike Netherlands it will be the front 4 of RVP, Kuyt, VDV and Sneijder - and my proposed England formation where the front 4 will be J Cole, Gerrard, Rooney and Milner / Johnson.
Arguably to have the lone striker up front and 3 attacking midfielders supporting him, I think the Spanish will be better off playing Llorente as the lone striker in the Heskey role. Too many crosses in the Switzerland game. By playing Llorente he can head the crosses back to the midfield or hold up play. The rigidity of the lone-striker role in the Spain formation suits Llorente more when they play against far more defensive opposition.
For the first time in my life, and I never thought I'd say this - Spain need fabregas. I always rated Xabi, Xavi, Iniesta as better midfielders than Fabregas. But right now, they need him more. I do not recommend him in the starting 11, but perhaps an impact sub. Their plan B. Its risky starting fabregas because the ones in the starting 11 are better than him. But what fabgregas offers that is different from anyone else is that he plays in the English Premier League. Its ridicilous to say that the EPL is better than any league in this world. And I'm not saying that. The reason why he should come out as a sub is the way teams are playing against Spain (and see Japan against Netherlands)- this is the way lesser EPL teams have been playing against Arsenal - they don't play to win, they play to not lose, because they acknowledge the better team. Teams in EPL play against Arsenal diferently than they would to any other team. They pack their own half, they close down Arsenal's midfield, offering them very little space, and they play very physically and defensively against them . When Barcelona vs Getafe / Real Sociedad its end to end and attacking from both sides. When Arsenal play against Stoke / Bolton / Hull and many other teams - contrary to what everyone think that the English game is fast paced and end-to-end, in these games they don't bother to even attack. I must say Arsenal don't do particularly well in these games, and neither does Fabregas. But at least, Fabregas is not alien to these tactics and at least has played more regularly in these type of games and have every now and then come up on top. Xavi and Inieista's exposure to these games is only in Champions League against Inter / Chelsea. And they fail horribly. The spanish game offers them more space and people don't roughen up the opposition. Fabregas is used to working with very very tight spaces and have 3 of 4 midfielders / defenders closing him down. And on the physical side of things, Fabregas is more used to having opposition players roughening him up compared to the rest of the Spanish team. Against very defensive opponents - Spain's secret weapon is Torres and Fabregas. They are not to be used against everyone, but when the opposition is playing too defensively, these 2 players do well. Note that Aragones actually used Fabgregas in this way in Euro 2008, he came on for Villa in the Italy game I think, and started against Germany in the Final (but he didn't play well and got subbed ).
And Spain - Llorente is your Plan B / Plan C
Brazil
We witnessed something very intersting in Round 1. Brazil faced against a opposition that plays almost the same as them or very defensively.
Brazil's strength lies in their counter. In the South American Qualifying, they're happy to let other teams attack, and hit them on the counter. If you watch highlights of their South American Qualifying goals, its always a retreating opposition from an attack / corner / free kick, and 3 or 4 brazilian players marauding towards goal from the half-way line. For Brazils goals in qualifying, the kind of goals scored are usually 3 or 4 Brazillian players vs 3 Opposition defenders. And no midfield in sight. Brazil soak up pressure and hit on the counter. And that's why Robinho plays so well for Brazil because he is so quick, and Brazil relies VERY HEAVILY on Robinho (and Kaka), but Robinho arguably the more important player. If Robinho's injured Brazil's chances of winning the WC is actually gone.
Against North Korea, Brazil were playing against themselves, with the otherside less gifted technically. And it frustrated them.
But the difference between Brazil and Spain, Argentina is that Brazil are more efficient.
What would be interesting in the world cup is when Brazil play against teams that soak up pressure and concentrate on defending. Brazil's difficulty in facing North Korea is different from that faced by Spain when they play against Switzerland. Brazil RELIES on the other team attacking them, and are expecting to DEFEND against any team. IE. Brazil doesn't make the first move. They defend and wait. And its interesting when they face another team that 'waits' before making the first move, which is what you saw in Brazil vs North Korea. Unlike Spain or Argentina which attacks from the start.
So I can confidently predict that Brazil will win comfortably against the following teams: Spain, Argentina, Mexico and maybe Germany. And African teams because of their lack of discipline (save for the Ivory Coast)
But will Brazil face a similar opposition like the North Koreans or themselves further in the world cup ? Portugal and Ivory Coast are VERY ORGANISED teams like the Brazilians, but you can't call them 'counter-attacking' or 'defensive' or 'attacking'. They're organised just like the Dutch. But I rate the Portugese lower than Ivory Coast, the Dutch and Brazil. The main reason is indiscipline and ridiculous behaviour in one player which I don't think I need to name. In the 4-2-3-1 when one of your '3' decides not to play or does his own thing - you're fucked.
Who can stop the Brazilians? A team of similar defensive qualities of their own: Uruguay, Italy, Netherlands, Paraguay. But what is interesting about these teams is none of them play like Brazil, attacking on the counter. In fact I can't think of any team in this world cup that attacks on the counter. And maybe that would be Brazil's ultimate advantage against any other team. Thats why I still think the Brazilians are favourites because of their effiency. If there's a team that can just kill you off in one move / have one chance in the game and take it - I rate Brazil as the best. That's why their my favourites.
Italy
Do not underestimate them. that's it. Italy changed formations I think 3 or 4 times in the Paraguay game. They won the last world cup because of this. They'll go far.
Group A (it's more interesting than you would think)
Last game Uruguay v Mexico; France vs South Africa.
France and South Africa are mathematically not out yet. People are not rating their chances because so far, no one has been talking about them and everybody is saying its all over for France.
But I say, watch South Africa VERY CLOSELY. Its a high chance they win that game because France are in shambles, and they don't look like a team that will at least give a performance to their fans (maybe because their fans don't love them in the first place) as their final bow in the world cup, whereas South Africa WOULD MOST LIKELY TO SO, and if they were to exit the world cup now, they would like to do so the way the started it - BANG !. Ie. France loses, South Africa wins : 4 points.
And I find it strange that no one rates either France or South Africa's chances highly to progress from the group, they all assume that Uruguay v Mexico is so evenly matched that it will be a draw.
Now here's the truth: A draw wouldn't hurt Uruguay, they'll still be top on Goal Difference. A draw would HURT MEXICO BADLY - they face Argentina in the next round because they'll end up second in the group.
Here's the scenario: Uruguay doesn't want to lose the last game, draw is ok. Draw wouldn't be ok for Mexico. Uruguay would probably know Mexico would prefer to win this game, Uruguay knows that if Mexico wins Uruguay is fucked unless France draws with South Africa (which is unlikely because France are such a shit team).
So Uruguay, like Mexico, will be playing for a win. Both teams desperate to play for a win means : one team will lose. One team will lose means, if South Africa wins, the losing team will be on level points with South Africa and it will come down to goal difference.
So the Uruguay v Mexico game is much more interesting than one would expect (or what has been expected of it so far). My thinking is, Uruguay would kill-off Mexico with 1 goal or 2 goals first / as soon as possible, and just sit back and defend the lead, even if Mexico pops in a goal or 2, (2-2) Uruguay still ends up the ultimate winner.
A draw is a win for Uruguay, a draw is a lose for Mexico.
Think of it this way: This game is a Champions League 2nd leg, where the first leg being played at Uruguay's home ground ends up in a 0-0 draw. This is the 2nd leg, now being played at Mexico's home ground, Uruguay is playing away. A 1-1 / 2-2 draw means Uruguay wins (on goal difference).
And here's the thing, what if, what if, Mexico fails to come back from a goal deficit ? Uruguay wins. Mexico is level on points with South Africa, if Mexico loses by 2 goals (goal diff:0), and South Africa wins on a 3 goal margin (goal diff: 0). Interesting ? If the goal margins changes just a little bit more, South Africa could potentially make it to the next round. Its not impossible.
But note, if Uruguay somehow comes second in this group. I see their encounter with Argentina in the next round as a Uruguay win.
Group B: watch out for Nigeria
Nothing intersting about Argentina vs Greece. Just how many Argentina will score that's all. Argentina guarantee to rest players.
Interesting bit: Korea (3 points; goal diff - 1) vs Nigeria (0 points; goal difference -2). How many will Argentina score against Greece (currently 3 points, goal diff: -1) ? at least 2 ? So let's say Argentina wins greece by a 2 goal margin.
Now, Nigeria with 0 points. it seems like there's no way out for them ? Wrong. Is it impossible for Nigeria to win South Korea? No.
IF, Nigeria wins South Korea just 1-0 / by a one goal margin, and Argentina wins Greece by at least 2 goals it now looks like this : South Korea (3 points, goal diff: -2), Greece (3 points, goal diff: -3), Nigeria (3 points, goal diff: -1).
Now, guess who's in second place after goal difference? A team could potentially go through to next round with just 3 points, and it's not impossible. Amazing. Nigeria who lost their first 2 games, goes through to the next round with a 1-0 win against Korea with just 3 points!
A. Serbia vs Australia: draw (Serbia goal diff: 0)
A 1) And Germany draws against ghana. Ghana 1st placed, Germany 2nd (goal diff)
A 2) If Germany wins, Germany 1st placed, Ghana and Serbia will fight it out on goal diff, with Ghana being the loser if they lose by more than a 1 goal margin.
A 3) Ghana wins. Ghana 1st placed, Serbia 2nd.
B Serbia wins Australia
B 1) Germany draws against Ghana. Serbia 1st placed, Ghana 2nd
B 2) Germany wins. Germany 1, Serbia 2 (unless Serbia thrashes Australia)
B 3) Ghana wins. Ghana 1, Serbia 2
This group is getting interesting as well.
Australia's only chance of going through is by winning Serbia (whereas Serbia and Germany might still be able to afford to draw). And leaving the rest to the Gods of Goal Difference.
I remember before the start of the world cup i fancy netherlands to reach at least the quarters. And I always thought they were good enough. My prediction was that they will only crash out in the Semis if they meet Brazil (and if Brazil to top its group). Why will they go out to Brazil? Because Brazil are the more efficient team. And if they beat Brazil, the chances of them reaching finals is extremely strong. But they would most likely crash out on penalties (Although they're team has an abundance of penalty takers, Netherlands don't do well in penalties - for penalty-shoot outs history plays a part).
And another reason why they would go far in the world cup, is that the chances of them meeting Germany is very weak unless one of these teams come second in their respective groups. I still do not doubt Germany will top the group. The Dutch never win the Germans.
Why Netherlands? The doubts most people have is that they have a lack of quality in their defenders. I never rated their defence too highly, but I never thought they're the worst. Before the world cup I can easily come up with teams with worse defenders than the Dutch - England, Argentina, Mexico, African teams, Asian teams. And better defences - Brazil, USA, Greece, Italy, Germany. But now the teams with better defences - Uruguay, Brazil, Italy, Switzerland (provided Senderos doesn't play), USA.
I never rated Spain's defence highly. People normally ask me who does the Dutch have? who does the Spanish have? But for national teams, it's not the name that counts but the team. Spain have Pique, Puyol, Ramos and Capdevilla. Individually they are among the best in the world. And so does the Englsih. But as national teams, I never rated them both highly. The English have conceded A LOT during qualifying. And the Spanish almost never kept a clean sheet regardless of who the opposition is.
But to be honest, I never thought the Dutch team are better than the Spanish. And I still don't.
One reason for this Dutch team's success is their 4-2-3-1 formation. And I rate them highly because Van Persie is their striker. On direct comparison Van Persie loses out to Messi, Rooney, Robinho, Villa, Torres, Forlan etc. But the reason why Van Persie is so important is because he fits in the system well. He is a more 'complete' footballer than the rest. No, he can't defend for shit. But he slots into midfield or the wings perfectly, holds up the ball, and allows the midfield trio to come in to support. It's the fluidity of Netherland's front 3 or front 4 that makes it work. Van persie can drift to the either side of the flanks, and is particular effective when cutting inside from the right.
My suggestion earlier that England play 4-2-3-1 is sort of modelled on the Brazil formation and Dutch formation. But more on the Dutch, because arguably Rooney can play the van persie role very well, and the interchangeability of the front 4 (Sneijder, Van der vaart, Van Persie, Kuyt - compared to - Joe Cole, Milner / Glen Johnson, Rooney, Gerrard) is more direct substitute than the Brazil which is arguably more rigid - in terms of position. The difference between the Brazil 4-2-3-1 and the Dutch 4-2-3-1 is the Brazil uses this formation to attack on the counter. But the Dutch 4-2-3-1 's strength is in the interchangeability of the front 4. Sneijder ,VDV, Kuyt can easily become second strikers or drift to the wing, the same can be said for the English.
The Spanish
I will say that from the start, I have never written off the Spanish chances. I still don't actually. But in my initial predictions in the progress chart (twice - the first one wrong). For my wrongly positioned world cup chart I predicted that the Spanish wouldn't reach the finals because they would meet Brazil in the KO stages. The reason why they will go out to Brazil is because Brazil is more efficient and the Spanish do not do well against efficient / defensive teams. And especially that the Brazilians hit teams on the counter very very quick. When I revised my chart and do it the right way, I predicted that the Finals would be Spain vs Brazil. The reason why the Spanish would reach the finals is because they will not meet Brazil or Germany in the KO stages.
The Spanish play the 4-2-3-1 which is effective in its own right. The 4-2-3-1 is supposed to be a fluid formation. It has proved effective for the Spanish, and I believed that this is a formation to be used by the Spanish, but we see from this world cup that the 4-2-3-1 is actually Spain's weakness. Because the lone-striker up front D Villa or Torres. Unlike Rooney or RVP, Villa and Torres are predictable and they only lead the line. Whereas Rooney / RVP can come in deeper, or drift to the wings. The rigidity of Spain's 4-2-3-1 Results in less movement / interchangeability in the final third. And Torres / Villa 's position are fixed in the front. So arguably the interchangeability is between the front 3 of Xavi, Iniesta and Silva. Unlike Netherlands it will be the front 4 of RVP, Kuyt, VDV and Sneijder - and my proposed England formation where the front 4 will be J Cole, Gerrard, Rooney and Milner / Johnson.
Arguably to have the lone striker up front and 3 attacking midfielders supporting him, I think the Spanish will be better off playing Llorente as the lone striker in the Heskey role. Too many crosses in the Switzerland game. By playing Llorente he can head the crosses back to the midfield or hold up play. The rigidity of the lone-striker role in the Spain formation suits Llorente more when they play against far more defensive opposition.
For the first time in my life, and I never thought I'd say this - Spain need fabregas. I always rated Xabi, Xavi, Iniesta as better midfielders than Fabregas. But right now, they need him more. I do not recommend him in the starting 11, but perhaps an impact sub. Their plan B. Its risky starting fabregas because the ones in the starting 11 are better than him. But what fabgregas offers that is different from anyone else is that he plays in the English Premier League. Its ridicilous to say that the EPL is better than any league in this world. And I'm not saying that. The reason why he should come out as a sub is the way teams are playing against Spain (and see Japan against Netherlands)- this is the way lesser EPL teams have been playing against Arsenal - they don't play to win, they play to not lose, because they acknowledge the better team. Teams in EPL play against Arsenal diferently than they would to any other team. They pack their own half, they close down Arsenal's midfield, offering them very little space, and they play very physically and defensively against them . When Barcelona vs Getafe / Real Sociedad its end to end and attacking from both sides. When Arsenal play against Stoke / Bolton / Hull and many other teams - contrary to what everyone think that the English game is fast paced and end-to-end, in these games they don't bother to even attack. I must say Arsenal don't do particularly well in these games, and neither does Fabregas. But at least, Fabregas is not alien to these tactics and at least has played more regularly in these type of games and have every now and then come up on top. Xavi and Inieista's exposure to these games is only in Champions League against Inter / Chelsea. And they fail horribly. The spanish game offers them more space and people don't roughen up the opposition. Fabregas is used to working with very very tight spaces and have 3 of 4 midfielders / defenders closing him down. And on the physical side of things, Fabregas is more used to having opposition players roughening him up compared to the rest of the Spanish team. Against very defensive opponents - Spain's secret weapon is Torres and Fabregas. They are not to be used against everyone, but when the opposition is playing too defensively, these 2 players do well. Note that Aragones actually used Fabgregas in this way in Euro 2008, he came on for Villa in the Italy game I think, and started against Germany in the Final (but he didn't play well and got subbed ).
And Spain - Llorente is your Plan B / Plan C
Brazil
We witnessed something very intersting in Round 1. Brazil faced against a opposition that plays almost the same as them or very defensively.
Brazil's strength lies in their counter. In the South American Qualifying, they're happy to let other teams attack, and hit them on the counter. If you watch highlights of their South American Qualifying goals, its always a retreating opposition from an attack / corner / free kick, and 3 or 4 brazilian players marauding towards goal from the half-way line. For Brazils goals in qualifying, the kind of goals scored are usually 3 or 4 Brazillian players vs 3 Opposition defenders. And no midfield in sight. Brazil soak up pressure and hit on the counter. And that's why Robinho plays so well for Brazil because he is so quick, and Brazil relies VERY HEAVILY on Robinho (and Kaka), but Robinho arguably the more important player. If Robinho's injured Brazil's chances of winning the WC is actually gone.
Against North Korea, Brazil were playing against themselves, with the otherside less gifted technically. And it frustrated them.
But the difference between Brazil and Spain, Argentina is that Brazil are more efficient.
What would be interesting in the world cup is when Brazil play against teams that soak up pressure and concentrate on defending. Brazil's difficulty in facing North Korea is different from that faced by Spain when they play against Switzerland. Brazil RELIES on the other team attacking them, and are expecting to DEFEND against any team. IE. Brazil doesn't make the first move. They defend and wait. And its interesting when they face another team that 'waits' before making the first move, which is what you saw in Brazil vs North Korea. Unlike Spain or Argentina which attacks from the start.
So I can confidently predict that Brazil will win comfortably against the following teams: Spain, Argentina, Mexico and maybe Germany. And African teams because of their lack of discipline (save for the Ivory Coast)
But will Brazil face a similar opposition like the North Koreans or themselves further in the world cup ? Portugal and Ivory Coast are VERY ORGANISED teams like the Brazilians, but you can't call them 'counter-attacking' or 'defensive' or 'attacking'. They're organised just like the Dutch. But I rate the Portugese lower than Ivory Coast, the Dutch and Brazil. The main reason is indiscipline and ridiculous behaviour in one player which I don't think I need to name. In the 4-2-3-1 when one of your '3' decides not to play or does his own thing - you're fucked.
Who can stop the Brazilians? A team of similar defensive qualities of their own: Uruguay, Italy, Netherlands, Paraguay. But what is interesting about these teams is none of them play like Brazil, attacking on the counter. In fact I can't think of any team in this world cup that attacks on the counter. And maybe that would be Brazil's ultimate advantage against any other team. Thats why I still think the Brazilians are favourites because of their effiency. If there's a team that can just kill you off in one move / have one chance in the game and take it - I rate Brazil as the best. That's why their my favourites.
Italy
Do not underestimate them. that's it. Italy changed formations I think 3 or 4 times in the Paraguay game. They won the last world cup because of this. They'll go far.
Group A (it's more interesting than you would think)
Last game Uruguay v Mexico; France vs South Africa.
France and South Africa are mathematically not out yet. People are not rating their chances because so far, no one has been talking about them and everybody is saying its all over for France.
But I say, watch South Africa VERY CLOSELY. Its a high chance they win that game because France are in shambles, and they don't look like a team that will at least give a performance to their fans (maybe because their fans don't love them in the first place) as their final bow in the world cup, whereas South Africa WOULD MOST LIKELY TO SO, and if they were to exit the world cup now, they would like to do so the way the started it - BANG !. Ie. France loses, South Africa wins : 4 points.
And I find it strange that no one rates either France or South Africa's chances highly to progress from the group, they all assume that Uruguay v Mexico is so evenly matched that it will be a draw.
Now here's the truth: A draw wouldn't hurt Uruguay, they'll still be top on Goal Difference. A draw would HURT MEXICO BADLY - they face Argentina in the next round because they'll end up second in the group.
Here's the scenario: Uruguay doesn't want to lose the last game, draw is ok. Draw wouldn't be ok for Mexico. Uruguay would probably know Mexico would prefer to win this game, Uruguay knows that if Mexico wins Uruguay is fucked unless France draws with South Africa (which is unlikely because France are such a shit team).
So Uruguay, like Mexico, will be playing for a win. Both teams desperate to play for a win means : one team will lose. One team will lose means, if South Africa wins, the losing team will be on level points with South Africa and it will come down to goal difference.
So the Uruguay v Mexico game is much more interesting than one would expect (or what has been expected of it so far). My thinking is, Uruguay would kill-off Mexico with 1 goal or 2 goals first / as soon as possible, and just sit back and defend the lead, even if Mexico pops in a goal or 2, (2-2) Uruguay still ends up the ultimate winner.
A draw is a win for Uruguay, a draw is a lose for Mexico.
Think of it this way: This game is a Champions League 2nd leg, where the first leg being played at Uruguay's home ground ends up in a 0-0 draw. This is the 2nd leg, now being played at Mexico's home ground, Uruguay is playing away. A 1-1 / 2-2 draw means Uruguay wins (on goal difference).
And here's the thing, what if, what if, Mexico fails to come back from a goal deficit ? Uruguay wins. Mexico is level on points with South Africa, if Mexico loses by 2 goals (goal diff:0), and South Africa wins on a 3 goal margin (goal diff: 0). Interesting ? If the goal margins changes just a little bit more, South Africa could potentially make it to the next round. Its not impossible.
But note, if Uruguay somehow comes second in this group. I see their encounter with Argentina in the next round as a Uruguay win.
Group B: watch out for Nigeria
Nothing intersting about Argentina vs Greece. Just how many Argentina will score that's all. Argentina guarantee to rest players.
Interesting bit: Korea (3 points; goal diff - 1) vs Nigeria (0 points; goal difference -2). How many will Argentina score against Greece (currently 3 points, goal diff: -1) ? at least 2 ? So let's say Argentina wins greece by a 2 goal margin.
Now, Nigeria with 0 points. it seems like there's no way out for them ? Wrong. Is it impossible for Nigeria to win South Korea? No.
IF, Nigeria wins South Korea just 1-0 / by a one goal margin, and Argentina wins Greece by at least 2 goals it now looks like this : South Korea (3 points, goal diff: -2), Greece (3 points, goal diff: -3), Nigeria (3 points, goal diff: -1).
Now, guess who's in second place after goal difference? A team could potentially go through to next round with just 3 points, and it's not impossible. Amazing. Nigeria who lost their first 2 games, goes through to the next round with a 1-0 win against Korea with just 3 points!
(Very interesting Stat here (Betters take note !!! ): WC 2002 Group Stages: Nigeria lost game one 1:0; loss game two 2:1; draw game three 0:0; WC 2006 failed to qualify; WC 2010 Nigeria lost game one 1:0; loss game two 2:1; game three...... ?)
Massive advantage for South Korea is, that a draw would be enough to take them through.
Group C
England : boring. next
Group D: Australia dares to dream
I'll talk about this group with Australia being the reference point because their last placed. And because Serbia has a tendency to handball in their own penalty area.
And all scenarios assuming Australia beats Serbia (not impossible).
(note: another interesting fact - did anyone realise that EVERY SINGLE group game from this group has a red card? (Australia leads with 2, Germany tied with Serbia with 1, Ghana 0) If your betting options includes betting for a red card in a game - this stat might be useful)
Ok, Australia beats Serbia - Australia goes through on 2 possibilities:
1. Ghana beat Germany. Ghana (5 points), Australia 4 points. Germany and Serbia 3 points.
2. Germany beats Ghana. Australia beats Serbia. Germany 6 points. Australia and Ghana level on points (4 points). Ghana current goal diff : +1 ; Australia goal difference currently : -4.
If Germany wins ghana by a 3 goal margin, Ghana's goal diff: -2 and if Australia beats Serbia by 2 goal margin; Australia goal diff: -2. AND if the Germany result is 3:0 and Australian result is 2:0. Guess who goes through? Australia, on number of goal scored.
But for Germany to beat Ghana by 3 clear goals? And Australia to beat Serbia by 2 goals ? It's the most remote of all possibilities regarding the bottom placed team chances that I have explored so far.
Despite the extreme coincidental circumstances required for Scenario 2 to happen, I like that scenario more. Maybe because it's so crazy. And also because I don't want Germany to exit the tournament (and also, Ghana is starting to annoy me, see below).
And despite the fact that this Ghana team are one of the more stronger African teams in this tournament. Is it just me or they seem like a bunch of cocky little bastards? They seem so full of themselves (they're almost as bad as England - ok, not quite there, England are far worse)
And ok, if I don't use Australia as a ref point.
Massive advantage for South Korea is, that a draw would be enough to take them through.
Group C
England : boring. next
Group D: Australia dares to dream
I'll talk about this group with Australia being the reference point because their last placed. And because Serbia has a tendency to handball in their own penalty area.
And all scenarios assuming Australia beats Serbia (not impossible).
(note: another interesting fact - did anyone realise that EVERY SINGLE group game from this group has a red card? (Australia leads with 2, Germany tied with Serbia with 1, Ghana 0) If your betting options includes betting for a red card in a game - this stat might be useful)
Ok, Australia beats Serbia - Australia goes through on 2 possibilities:
1. Ghana beat Germany. Ghana (5 points), Australia 4 points. Germany and Serbia 3 points.
2. Germany beats Ghana. Australia beats Serbia. Germany 6 points. Australia and Ghana level on points (4 points). Ghana current goal diff : +1 ; Australia goal difference currently : -4.
If Germany wins ghana by a 3 goal margin, Ghana's goal diff: -2 and if Australia beats Serbia by 2 goal margin; Australia goal diff: -2. AND if the Germany result is 3:0 and Australian result is 2:0. Guess who goes through? Australia, on number of goal scored.
But for Germany to beat Ghana by 3 clear goals? And Australia to beat Serbia by 2 goals ? It's the most remote of all possibilities regarding the bottom placed team chances that I have explored so far.
Despite the extreme coincidental circumstances required for Scenario 2 to happen, I like that scenario more. Maybe because it's so crazy. And also because I don't want Germany to exit the tournament (and also, Ghana is starting to annoy me, see below).
And despite the fact that this Ghana team are one of the more stronger African teams in this tournament. Is it just me or they seem like a bunch of cocky little bastards? They seem so full of themselves (they're almost as bad as England - ok, not quite there, England are far worse)
And ok, if I don't use Australia as a ref point.
A. Serbia vs Australia: draw (Serbia goal diff: 0)
A 1) And Germany draws against ghana. Ghana 1st placed, Germany 2nd (goal diff)
A 2) If Germany wins, Germany 1st placed, Ghana and Serbia will fight it out on goal diff, with Ghana being the loser if they lose by more than a 1 goal margin.
A 3) Ghana wins. Ghana 1st placed, Serbia 2nd.
B Serbia wins Australia
B 1) Germany draws against Ghana. Serbia 1st placed, Ghana 2nd
B 2) Germany wins. Germany 1, Serbia 2 (unless Serbia thrashes Australia)
B 3) Ghana wins. Ghana 1, Serbia 2
This group is getting interesting as well.
Australia's only chance of going through is by winning Serbia (whereas Serbia and Germany might still be able to afford to draw). And leaving the rest to the Gods of Goal Difference.
Friday, June 18, 2010
funnies
lol
and this: Maradona shows u theres nothing wrong with the ball
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGTOGG4o_eU
And not so funny,
http://gu.com/p/2htnh
why final round of group matches are played at the same time.
A story that will make you feel sick in the stomache. Some will need some Kleenex on standby.
"... The next day newspapers in Spain denounced "El Anschluss" ... Eberhard Stanjek, commentating for the German channel ARD, almost sobbed during the match as he lamented: "What is happening here is disgraceful and has nothing to do with football..." The Austrian commentator, meanwhile, told viewers to turn off their sets and refused to speak for the last half-hour...."
19 June
Wow and lol at last night games
Round up June 18
Germany v Serbia Germany win 1.50; Lost $5.00
Solvenia v USA USA win 2.00; Lost $5.00
England v Algeria Rooney to score 1.72; Lost $5.00
Asian handicapsGermany v Serbia 0:1 ; Germany 2.025;Lost $5.00
Total Winings June 18 = - $20.00
Total Winnings ($-20) plus Previous Winnings ($93.80) = $73.80
haha, first time I predicted the outcomes so horribly wrong.
pity about the Germany game where the refree giving out yellow cards like christmas presents. but to be fair to Germany they had the chance to at least draw the game but fail to take it.
C'mon Australia WIN tonight ! Aussie win means 4 teams with 3 POINTS !! 3 point rumble next round please !!
Group A and Group B and Group C last placed teams still mathematically NOT OUT YET ! amazing ! Nigeria, France and Algeria are still in the competition!
And congratulations to USA for coming back from 2-0 down to get a draw. It's teams like that that will go far in the world cup. I always believed in USA and always believed they will top the group. It's still possible, provided England draw / win against Slovenia and USA win against Algeria with a good margin. And USA should have won the game if not for the referee.
I think the referees have heard the complaints about the world cup being too boring and trying to do something to change it. Look at last night.
I think I will just bet on Uruguay and Chile to win the world cup for fun.
June 19 Predictions
Netherlands v Japan 3:0
Ghana v Australia 1:0 (Although I would like to see Australia win it for the good of the world cup)
Cameroon v Denmark 0:2
June 19 Bets
For Fun, Top South American team: Chile 15.00; Bet $5.00
For Fun, Top South American team: Uruguay 6.00; Bet $5.00
Holland v Japan: Player to Score Van Persie 2.00; Bet $5.00
Holland v Japan: Player to Score Sneijder 3.50; Bet $5.00
Holland v Japan: Holland win 1.35; Bet $5.00
Denmark v Cameroon: Denmark/draw 1.43; Bet $5.00
For Fun, Group G North Korea to Qualify R16 17.00; Bet $5.00
Total Outlay: $35.00
Thursday, June 17, 2010
June 18
June 18
Predictions
Germany vs Serbia 2:0
England v Algeria 3:1
USA v Slovenia 2:0
Interesting Stats re England:
Group E to Qualify R16 Denmark 2.35; Bet $5.00
Group C to Qualify R16 USA 1.45; Bet $5.00
Group H to Qualify R16 Switzerland 1.30 Bet $5.00
Germany v Serbia Germany win 1.50; Bet $5.00
Solvenia v USA USA win 2.00; Bet $5.00
England v Algeria Rooney to score 1.72; Bet $5.00
Asian handicaps
Germany v Serbia 0:1 ; Germany 2.025; Bet $5.00
Interesting to note:
For Asian Handicaps USA 0 Slovenia 1/4; USA 1.85 compared to fixed odds of 2.25 (What's going on?)
Worth betting:
USA to to top Group C 4.00
Switzerland to top Group H 2.25
Predictions
Germany vs Serbia 2:0
England v Algeria 3:1
USA v Slovenia 2:0
Interesting Stats re England:
- Under Capello, England have conceded in around 72% of their games. Here's who scored against them: Switzerland, France, Czechs, German, Croatia (both games), Kazakhstan, Belarus, Spain, Netherlands, Slovenia, Ukraine, Egypt, Mexico, Japan. (Tonight, both teams to score priced at 2.85; Over 2.5 goals priced at 1.95; First half over 0.5 goals priced at 1.35)
- Under Capello, England have won 72% of their games, drawn 12% and lost 16%.
- The 4 Losses under Capello have been to Brazil, France, Ukraine and Spain.
- Against any decent looking opposition, England have won twice against Croatia and once against Germany, Drawn against Netherlands and Czech Republic.
Group E to Qualify R16 Denmark 2.35; Bet $5.00
Group C to Qualify R16 USA 1.45; Bet $5.00
Group H to Qualify R16 Switzerland 1.30 Bet $5.00
Germany v Serbia Germany win 1.50; Bet $5.00
Solvenia v USA USA win 2.00; Bet $5.00
England v Algeria Rooney to score 1.72; Bet $5.00
Asian handicaps
Germany v Serbia 0:1 ; Germany 2.025; Bet $5.00
Interesting to note:
For Asian Handicaps USA 0 Slovenia 1/4; USA 1.85 compared to fixed odds of 2.25 (What's going on?)
Worth betting:
USA to to top Group C 4.00
Switzerland to top Group H 2.25
Round Ups plus further Future Bets
Round up of both June 16 and June 17
Asian Handicap: South Africa v Uruguay 1/4:0. Uruguay 2.10; $5.00 X 2.10 = $10.50
Goal Margin: Spain v Switzerland. Spain by 2+Goals 1.75; Lost $5.00
Spain v Switzerland. Torres NOT to score 1.65; $5.00 X 1.65 = $8.25
Chile v Honduras. Chile 1.55; $5.00 X 1.55 = $7.75
Chile v Hondruas. Under 2.5 goals 1.60; $5.00 X 1.60 = $8.00
South Africa v Uruguay: Uruguay or Draw 1.36; $5.00 x 1.36 = $6.80
Argentina v South Korea; Double Chance South Korea/Draw 2.63; Lost $5.00
France v Mexico; Double Chance Mexico / Draw 1.65; $5.00 x 1.65 = $8.25
Cheeky Bet: France v Mexico; Gallas to Score 11.00; Lost $5.00
June 16 and 17 Total Winnings: $34.55
Two day Total Winnings: $34.55+ $59.25 previous winnings = $93.80
Holy shit, I'm getting pretty good at this, no? Considering all my bets are $5.00 and few $10.00 here and there.
But unfortunately my human brain didn't function as well as my logical brain did on my blog for the Spain game. Got greedy and quite a loss on the Spain v Switzerland game in real life (mainly on Multis). Well, it's considered a BIG loss cause I win so much. Laugh all you want, I consider $30.00 a big loss. But I vow never to let sentiments take over again.
Prediction Form Guide (Correct Score Predictions / Outcomes)
Games played: 20
Correct outcomes (ie win/lose/draw) : 9 (45% accuracy)
Correct scores predictions: 3 (15% accuracy)
Correct outcomes: Argentina v Nigeria, Algeria v Slovenia, Serbia v Ghana, Germany v Australia, Holland v Denmark, Brazil v DPR, Chile v Honduras, South Africa v Uruguay, France v Mexico
Correct Score Predictions:
Argentina v Nigeria 1:0
Serbia v Ghana 0:1
Holland v Denmark 2:0
Past Bets (World Cup Futures)
Now let's look at my past bets still in play. Plenty of money waiting scroll down and you'll see why. My sure-fire wins are in bold italics.
10 June Futures Bets
Now, some interesting things to note today.
Re Higuain is now 2.75 to be WC top scorer and Forlan at 8.00.
Looking at how scarce the goals are at this world cup (but note the sudden explosion of goals), I think it's reasonable to be priced at 2.75 even though I made a bold predictedion they'd never make it past R16 (and still believe so, it will be either a R16 or QF exit).
The Magic number I think will be 5.
Here's stats of Golden Boots: 98 WC Suker 6 goals, 02 WC Ronaldo 8 Goals, Euro 04 Baros 5 goals, WC 06 Klose 5 Goals, Euro 08 Villa 4 goals. Average = 5.6 Goals
I think Higuain will be rested on Argentina's last group game vs greece. But Messi will start (another story). So therefore Higuain has to hit 2 goals in 2 games (assuming they only make to QF) to reach 5 goals.
So who else I think is capable of hitting 5 goals?
World Cup Winner Odds as at 18 June
Shock, horror. Guess who's the favourite at the moment? Argentina at 5.00
Good Bet? No.
Germany is now priced at 6.00. I don't know what it was at the start of the tournament, but I'm assuming its more than my top Europe team bet at 8.00 (Laughs)
England I think have dropped from 7.50 or less to 8.50. (What rubbish, its still way too low).
Here's the top ten teams: Argentina 5.00 ; Brazil & Spain at 5.50; Germany 6.00; Holland 8.00; England 8.50; Italy 15.00; Portugal 29.00; Chile, Ivory Coast, Mexico, Uruguay tied at 34.00
Bad Bets: Argentina, Holland, England, Portugal
Now Big Question, Good Bets? Believe it or not, Chile and Uruguay are worth a flutter, and at 34.00 a pretty good one too.
But disclaimer, with World Cup Winner Futures and Top Scorer Futures, the aim here is not to 'make money' or winning. It's sort of like buying the lotto / TOTO/ 4D. It's money you're prepared to lose. Not money you utilise to make more money for you.
Asian Handicap: South Africa v Uruguay 1/4:0. Uruguay 2.10; $5.00 X 2.10 = $10.50
Goal Margin: Spain v Switzerland. Spain by 2+Goals 1.75; Lost $5.00
Spain v Switzerland. Torres NOT to score 1.65; $5.00 X 1.65 = $8.25
Chile v Honduras. Chile 1.55; $5.00 X 1.55 = $7.75
Chile v Hondruas. Under 2.5 goals 1.60; $5.00 X 1.60 = $8.00
South Africa v Uruguay: Uruguay or Draw 1.36; $5.00 x 1.36 = $6.80
Argentina v South Korea; Double Chance South Korea/Draw 2.63; Lost $5.00
France v Mexico; Double Chance Mexico / Draw 1.65; $5.00 x 1.65 = $8.25
Cheeky Bet: France v Mexico; Gallas to Score 11.00; Lost $5.00
June 16 and 17 Total Winnings: $34.55
Two day Total Winnings: $34.55+ $59.25 previous winnings = $93.80
Holy shit, I'm getting pretty good at this, no? Considering all my bets are $5.00 and few $10.00 here and there.
But unfortunately my human brain didn't function as well as my logical brain did on my blog for the Spain game. Got greedy and quite a loss on the Spain v Switzerland game in real life (mainly on Multis). Well, it's considered a BIG loss cause I win so much. Laugh all you want, I consider $30.00 a big loss. But I vow never to let sentiments take over again.
Prediction Form Guide (Correct Score Predictions / Outcomes)
Games played: 20
Correct outcomes (ie win/lose/draw) : 9 (45% accuracy)
Correct scores predictions: 3 (15% accuracy)
Correct outcomes: Argentina v Nigeria, Algeria v Slovenia, Serbia v Ghana, Germany v Australia, Holland v Denmark, Brazil v DPR, Chile v Honduras, South Africa v Uruguay, France v Mexico
Correct Score Predictions:
Argentina v Nigeria 1:0
Serbia v Ghana 0:1
Holland v Denmark 2:0
Past Bets (World Cup Futures)
Now let's look at my past bets still in play. Plenty of money waiting scroll down and you'll see why. My sure-fire wins are in bold italics.
10 June Futures Bets
- France not to Qualify R16 3.15; Bet $5.00
- AFC - NO An AFC Team will not qualify to R16 2.05; Bet $10.00
- Group C Winner - USA 5.00 ; Bet $5.00
- Group D Grand Total Goals Under 14.5 Goals 1.87; Bet $10.00
- Group E Grand Total Goals Over 14.5 Goals 1.87; Bet $5.00
- Group F To Qualify for R16, Slovakia 2.15; Bet $10.00
- Group G Grand Total Goals Over 16.5 Goals 1.95; Bet $5.00
- World Cup Winner Brazil 5.00; Bet $5.00
- Top European Team Germany 8.00; Bet $5.00
- Top African Team Ivory Coast 3.65; Bet $5.00
- Top African Team Ghana 4.50; Bet $5.00
- Look at the first bet! France not to qualify bet on 10 June. Hah!
- I don't think Japan will be able to make it out of the group, South Korea to spoil the AFC bet.
- Group C Winner? Let's see after tonight. But let me tell you the odds are still against USA. Odds today of them qualifying for R16 is at a very generous 2.00
- Group D - Let's hope Australia and Serbia don't spoil my party
- Group E - Is looking bad. I was expecting Japan and Cameroon to concede many hence my prediction.
- Group F - Slovakia. Difficult group to predict for now at least.
- Group G- I was expecting North Korea games to be goalfest. This is a confirmed loss.
- World Cup Winner - They're still my favourites. But right now, I think Chile / Netherlands / Paraguay are real barriers to Brazil's progress to the finals.
- Top European Team: Germany. This depends however on who tops Group A. If its Uruguay, maybe not.
- Top African Team Ivory Coast or Ghana - my proudest and smartest ever bet. Either team, it's a win. Looking like a guaranteed win of 2.65 at least.
12 June Futures
- World Cup Winner Spain 4.50; Bet $5.00
- World Cup Winner Brazil 5.50; Bet $5.00
- World Cup Winner Germany 15.00; Bet $5.00
- World Cup Top Scorer : Villa 8.00;
- Bet $5.00World Cup Top Scorer: Robinho 26.00;
- Bet $5.00World Cup Top Scorer: Van Persie 11.00; Bet $5.00
- World Cup To Qualify for Semi Final: USA 10.00 ; Bet $5.00
- """ : Germany 3.00; Bet $5.00
- """" : Brazil 2.10; Bet $5.00
- """": Spain 2.00; Bet $5.00
- World Cup Winners, speaks for itself. And you probably can tell what I was trying to do. And you can probably tell it doesn't look all that good at this moment.
- World Cup Top Scorer: Villa, Robinho, Van Persie. (Interesting to note. Higuain is now 2+ to end up top-scorer). This doesn't look too good either?
- World Cup To Qualify for Semi Final: re USA, assuming they end up top of the group, which I have always believed they will.
Now, some interesting things to note today.
Re Higuain is now 2.75 to be WC top scorer and Forlan at 8.00.
Looking at how scarce the goals are at this world cup (but note the sudden explosion of goals), I think it's reasonable to be priced at 2.75 even though I made a bold predictedion they'd never make it past R16 (and still believe so, it will be either a R16 or QF exit).
The Magic number I think will be 5.
Here's stats of Golden Boots: 98 WC Suker 6 goals, 02 WC Ronaldo 8 Goals, Euro 04 Baros 5 goals, WC 06 Klose 5 Goals, Euro 08 Villa 4 goals. Average = 5.6 Goals
I think Higuain will be rested on Argentina's last group game vs greece. But Messi will start (another story). So therefore Higuain has to hit 2 goals in 2 games (assuming they only make to QF) to reach 5 goals.
So who else I think is capable of hitting 5 goals?
- Sad but true, Klose priced at 8.50 (Serbia thrashing, plus Germany reaching Semis)
- Forlan priced at 8.00 Uruguay who have a very high chance of reaching Semis if they top their group. And he will start the next match against Mexico, because they will be playing to avoid Argentina. If they do reach the finals (not impossible if they top the group), he will have to score another 3 in 5 games to reach the magic number 5.
- Robin Van Persie is priced at 13.00. Yet to score, his only chance of becoming top scorer is if he hits a hat trick against Japan. But I'm thinking Netherlands will stop at the Quarters, but he will be rested against Cameroon in their last group game. So he has to hit 5 goals in 3 games.
- Messi is priced at 15.00 which I think is a very good bet. He is capable of hitting a hat trick, any time, against anyone, except: Switzerland, Brazil, Uruguay and any team that look like they're going to murder Barcelona.
- Robinho (34.00) unbelievably is priced BEHIND Crouch (29.00) and Gerrard (29.00)! Good Bet? Yes and No. Yes: Brazil will reach the finals unless Uruguay / Chile stops them. No: Brazil's style of play is such that goals will come from everywhere evenly distributed (think Italy 06), there won't be any particular player scoring their goals for them because they have so many players capable of doing so. My early favourite because I predicted him to score a hat-trick against North Korea, but now that the game is over, So is the chances of him winning the Golden Boot.
World Cup Winner Odds as at 18 June
Shock, horror. Guess who's the favourite at the moment? Argentina at 5.00
Good Bet? No.
Germany is now priced at 6.00. I don't know what it was at the start of the tournament, but I'm assuming its more than my top Europe team bet at 8.00 (Laughs)
England I think have dropped from 7.50 or less to 8.50. (What rubbish, its still way too low).
Here's the top ten teams: Argentina 5.00 ; Brazil & Spain at 5.50; Germany 6.00; Holland 8.00; England 8.50; Italy 15.00; Portugal 29.00; Chile, Ivory Coast, Mexico, Uruguay tied at 34.00
Bad Bets: Argentina, Holland, England, Portugal
Now Big Question, Good Bets? Believe it or not, Chile and Uruguay are worth a flutter, and at 34.00 a pretty good one too.
But disclaimer, with World Cup Winner Futures and Top Scorer Futures, the aim here is not to 'make money' or winning. It's sort of like buying the lotto / TOTO/ 4D. It's money you're prepared to lose. Not money you utilise to make more money for you.
June 17
Papers tomorrow no time to do a round-up. Will do so tomorrow for a comprehensive June 16 Round -up and Round 1 Round up.
June 16 was so-so. An overall loss, but not too bad.
Predictions for June 17 games:
Argentina vs Korea 1:2
Nigeria v Greece 1:0
France v Mexico 1:2
June 17 Bets
Argentina v South Korea; Double Chance South Korea/Draw 2.63; Bet $5.00
France v Mexico; Double Chance Mexico / Draw 1.65; Bet $5.00
Cheeky Bet: France v Mexico; Gallas to Score 11.00; Bet $5.00
Nigeria v Greece a difficult game to bet. I am inclined to think that Nigeria will win comfortably, but I think the performances of Switzerland and North Korea would inspire the lesser teams this round. But here both teams will be playing for a win or its over. Switzerland reminded me of Greece 2004. Confident that Greece will improve much more defensively, but the problem here is that they MUST win (compared to all the first round games, all the teams MUSN'T LOSE)
Interesting to note: Remember Hitzfield vs Del Bosque? Bayern v Real Madrid ? Who came up top most of the time? They met each other A LOT. If i'm not mistaken it was Bayern that came up on top most of the time. (Effenberg, Elber, Kahn vs Hierro, McManaman, Raul years). No time to do my homework but I think they met each other most (Hitzfield v Del Bosque) in late late 1990s to early 2000s.
Gallas to Score
1. Mexico look vulnerable in set-pieces.
2. Mexico probably have one of the shortest goal-keepers in the world cup in the starting eleven.
3. France doesn't seem to be interested in shooting from their free-kicks (Gourcuff)
4. Gallas scores from set pieces. And overwhelming number of goals from this World cup come from them, and defenders score a lot in this world cup. Gallas scored recently in a friendly. Gallas scored against Ireland to take France into the World Cup.
Re: Argentina (and Maradonna) TWO GOLDEN statistics.
Switzerland to Top Group H?
It's not possible. If they play for a draw vs a Chile (next game) and decide to not win that game at all, playing like they did against Spain. It's not impossible for them to draw the next game and win the next game against Honduras. 1 Win 2 Draws : 5 points. If so, 1 draw 1 win for Chile; and Spain 1 win (honduras)... wow, Spain v Chile will be interesting.
Boring World Cup?
How can it be a boring world cup when this time round it seems they will be more spots undecided in Round 3 of Group Matches? How many dead rubbers will we see with the number of draws in the first round? Italy's and France's group are guaranteed to be played until the last round, and so is Spain's (at the expense of Honduras) if Chile draw against Switzerland.
I remember in 02 and 06 the WORST games were Round 3. When we get to see Germany B, Spain B play etc. And the 2 last placed teams in so many groups playing for nothing. Week of Round 3 games were basically a break from the world cup when there was nothing to watch at all.
People claiming this world cup is boring prefer to see Germany 8 Saudi 0, Argentina 6 Serbia 0 in the first rounds. If so, world cup organizers have to split qualification into 2 classifications. 1 the top teams. 2 - teams ranked 150 and beyond to make up the final spots in the groups. Group matches will all be thrashings. Happy now? STFU and be happy that so many lesser teams are catching up. Just because your team isn't winning 10-0 doesn't mean the world cup is boring.
How can it be boring when your team is not even guaranteed to make it to the R16 games? And are playing until the very last game to deterimine qualification? That's more nerve-wrecking than boring to me.
June 16 was so-so. An overall loss, but not too bad.
Predictions for June 17 games:
Argentina vs Korea 1:2
Nigeria v Greece 1:0
France v Mexico 1:2
June 17 Bets
Argentina v South Korea; Double Chance South Korea/Draw 2.63; Bet $5.00
France v Mexico; Double Chance Mexico / Draw 1.65; Bet $5.00
Cheeky Bet: France v Mexico; Gallas to Score 11.00; Bet $5.00
Nigeria v Greece a difficult game to bet. I am inclined to think that Nigeria will win comfortably, but I think the performances of Switzerland and North Korea would inspire the lesser teams this round. But here both teams will be playing for a win or its over. Switzerland reminded me of Greece 2004. Confident that Greece will improve much more defensively, but the problem here is that they MUST win (compared to all the first round games, all the teams MUSN'T LOSE)
Interesting to note: Remember Hitzfield vs Del Bosque? Bayern v Real Madrid ? Who came up top most of the time? They met each other A LOT. If i'm not mistaken it was Bayern that came up on top most of the time. (Effenberg, Elber, Kahn vs Hierro, McManaman, Raul years). No time to do my homework but I think they met each other most (Hitzfield v Del Bosque) in late late 1990s to early 2000s.
Gallas to Score
1. Mexico look vulnerable in set-pieces.
2. Mexico probably have one of the shortest goal-keepers in the world cup in the starting eleven.
3. France doesn't seem to be interested in shooting from their free-kicks (Gourcuff)
4. Gallas scores from set pieces. And overwhelming number of goals from this World cup come from them, and defenders score a lot in this world cup. Gallas scored recently in a friendly. Gallas scored against Ireland to take France into the World Cup.
Re: Argentina (and Maradonna) TWO GOLDEN statistics.
- An interesting stat related to today's game. Argentina have NEVER DRAWN with Maradonna as coach. So will this mean an Argentinian WIN/LOSE not DRAW tonight?Maradonna's coaching stat (Argentina) so far 14 Wins, 5 Losses 0 Draws. 26.3% of a LOSS, 73.% chance of a Win, 0% chance of a DRAW (Those thinking Argentina are favourites (thankfully I never did), how is losing a 1 in every 4 games a good statistic?)
- Another interesting stat from Goal.com With the exceptions of Haiti and Canada the South Americans have won by ONE goal in their last six games, beating Nigeria, Germany, Jamaica, Costa Rica, Uruguay and Peru. Argentina to win by ONE goal margin: TAB odds: 3.30.
Switzerland to Top Group H?
It's not possible. If they play for a draw vs a Chile (next game) and decide to not win that game at all, playing like they did against Spain. It's not impossible for them to draw the next game and win the next game against Honduras. 1 Win 2 Draws : 5 points. If so, 1 draw 1 win for Chile; and Spain 1 win (honduras)... wow, Spain v Chile will be interesting.
Boring World Cup?
How can it be a boring world cup when this time round it seems they will be more spots undecided in Round 3 of Group Matches? How many dead rubbers will we see with the number of draws in the first round? Italy's and France's group are guaranteed to be played until the last round, and so is Spain's (at the expense of Honduras) if Chile draw against Switzerland.
I remember in 02 and 06 the WORST games were Round 3. When we get to see Germany B, Spain B play etc. And the 2 last placed teams in so many groups playing for nothing. Week of Round 3 games were basically a break from the world cup when there was nothing to watch at all.
People claiming this world cup is boring prefer to see Germany 8 Saudi 0, Argentina 6 Serbia 0 in the first rounds. If so, world cup organizers have to split qualification into 2 classifications. 1 the top teams. 2 - teams ranked 150 and beyond to make up the final spots in the groups. Group matches will all be thrashings. Happy now? STFU and be happy that so many lesser teams are catching up. Just because your team isn't winning 10-0 doesn't mean the world cup is boring.
How can it be boring when your team is not even guaranteed to make it to the R16 games? And are playing until the very last game to deterimine qualification? That's more nerve-wrecking than boring to me.
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