Round 16 Preview / Predictions

Uruguay v South Korea 3:0

Uruguay are very defensively solid, organized and hard-working team. Asian teams have a problem with scoring and Uruguay will make it very hard for Korea. Uruguay kept 3 clean sheets in the group stages, and will continue to do so here. Uruguay's strikers of Cavani and Suarez are very hardworking will will play closer to the flanks to pin back South Korea's fullbacks. Diego Forlan will operate slightly deeper in the middle (Suarez and Cavani in front of him), South Korea's only realistic chance of getting anything out of this game is to have one of their defensive midfielders marking Forlan. Korea's defenders will also have to be on the watch out or be positionally disciplined because Suarez and Cavani if tend to drift wide to drag the South Korea's defense open to create space for Forlan in the middle.
Also Uruguay's weapon will be Suarez. He has the tendency to dive (I forgot which game was it, but he dived almost THREE times in a single game, and i saw him do this in the other games). Asian's players tendency of making clumsy challenges could be fatal because of Suarez's diving skills. And Forlan will convert the resulting penalty.
My prediction of Uruguay scoring 3 is fair. Uruguay could score one or two early, and sit back and defend, as this is the way they play. South Korea would need to attack to score the much needed goal, leaving space behind for Uruguay to exploit.
Good Bets: Uruguay to win a penalty, Uruguay to score in the first half, Uruguay to keep a clean sheet.

Ghana v USA 1:2

This is one of the harder games to judge from the R16. Ghana are extremely solid defensively, packing a lot of players in their half. But Ghana have not scored in open play - they could have a problem scoring. USA went behind in their first 2 games before coming back from behind to draw/win. So a goal could be conceded here.
Ghana is excellent defensively, but thier goal conceded in the Germany game was due to a man-marking error. Watch the highlights, Ozil was left by himself with plenty of space, no-one, absolutely no one marking him at all. Hence, the goal he scored, and his one-on-one earlier in the game. But USA does not operate like many other teams with a central attacker sitting deep behind the forwards centrally. So this earlier mistake in the Germany game might not have any impact on this.

Germany v England 2:1

To be honest, another difficult game. England SHOULD NOT be playing 4-4-2 in this game. the reason why is Germany will outnumber England in midfield should they do so. This was how Ozil was effective vs Australia and Ghana, because they didn't have the numbers in midfield to match Germany: 4 vs 5, leaving the extra man (Ozil) being unmarked, or if someone like Barry tends to mark Ozil, Swxxxxger / Muller could make upfield runs to hurt them.

Sxxxger's loss will be huge for Germany, and they will be hoping for him to be fit for this game. Ghana did well against Germany because they marked Kheidera and Sxxxger very effectively.

The problem with this game is, both teams are weak defensively. Germany's particular weakness is at left back, so England would do well if they let Milner / Johnson to exploit this. Lahm tends to go forward a lot, because Muller is not naturally a flank player but plays centrally, and Germany could lose out if Kheidera or Sxxxxger doesn't try to cover his position.

Klose's return is a huge boost for Germany and England will have to be careful because his positioning is excellent, making space for Muller, Ozil, Kheidera to run into space.

This game could either be a scoring draw (1-1, 2-2) , because of both team's weak defense, or a 2-1 win to Germany, because they've got better attackers.

Result could potentially be settled in Extra Time. Germany are a much fitter team than England and would do well if that would be the case.

If result is not settled in Extra Time, don't bet on Germany winning on penalties. The old Germany relies on efficiency and excellent penalty-taking to take them far in competitions. New germany is young, and pressure could potentially get to them in a shoot out, as experience plays a vital role here. But England's problems with nerves, as they claim was the problem in the first 2 games, could make them potentially worse penalty takers than Germany, and historically England are not good penalty takers. So even if the game goes to penalties, it is hard to actually determine who will come up tops in it.

Mexico vs Argentina 3:2

This game should be a cracker. With both sides very excellent in attacking. But Mexico has a problem in that its attacks don't usually result in goals. But Mexico is much more organized defensively as compared to Argentina, so to back Argentina to give Mexico an absolute thrashing is unlikely either, unless Mexico fall behind early, and are trying to find an equaliser.

Argentina's defense is shaky, and hasn't been properly tested so far in this competition. Nigeria created plenty of chances against them, and Korea had 2-3 decent ones. How Argentina's defense fares against teams will be severely tested in this round.

Who comes up the winner of this match, would ultimately be decided on who manages to score the first goal. Both sides have excellent attackers, and teams that are searching for the equaliser would be punished heavily. Both sides play quite centrally, but Mexico arguably utilise the wings and flanks better than Argentina, and Argentina's fullbacks are not particularly good at dealing with attacks from the oppositions.

Will be brave and tip for a Mexican wing. Note that the bookies have made Mexico 6.+ to win the game.

Netherlands v Slovakia 3:1

It is unsure whether Robben will play in this game, with the coach saying he is still cautious on playing Robben or not. What could potentially happen is Netherlands still resting Robben, and only bringing him on if they need a goal (ie game is scoreless / Netherlands are behind). Robben would be crucial in determining how Netherlands play, and how much of a threat are they offensively.

Netherlands defense haven't been severely tested in this tournament. Cameroon created many chances, but Netherlands defensive capabilities cannot be judged on that 'friendly' game alone. Netherlands kept 2 clean sheets, conceded 1 goal, and that goal was a penalty. So its safe to say so far, that they are pretty solid defensively.

Slovakia's attacking prowess and defensive organisation is hard to gauge. The way they scored their 3 goals against Italy is because of very very poor defending by Italy and Italy were looking to score. The entire team was kept quite against Paraguay, and games against NZ doesn't count. They conceded 2 goals late against Italy, but cannot be blamed for Italy's 2nd goal. But to be fair to Slovakia, Italy played excellent for 15 mins out of 270 mins of the entire tournament. But Slovakia still allowed Italy to create many chances.

This could more realistically be a low scoring game : 1-0 or 2-0 win for the Netherlands. If Robben comes on, Netherlands would most probably end up scoring more. But I've tipped for them to win 3-1 because Robben might start, I am not so sure of Slovakia defensively, and Netherlands defense has hardly been tested so far.

Brazil v Chile 2:1

For those betting for Cards, expect many to be handed out here. First: Chile fouls aggresively. Second: Chile have the ability to dive / exaggerate fouls - so cards could go to either side because of this scenario. Third: Brazil respond POORLY, when teams start to get aggresive against them (Ivory Coast, Portugal). A high carding game for this one. A player to be sent worth might be worth a bet.

But one definite prediction is, this would be the game to watch in Round 16. Prediction of end to end stuff.

One worry for Chile is they could potentially suffer fom exhaustion because of the way they play. They are very aggressive and the team does a lot of running throughout the game. They are not contend to sit back and defend a lead, and will keep on pressing and attacking, which might be costly at this stage of the competition, and when fixtures become closer to each other.

Brazil's performance against Portugal cannot be used to judge their strengths and weakness. Well, one weakness is extremely clear: they respond badly when subject to poor challenges, play-acting etc. Against Portugal, 3 of their first team attackers: Kaka, Elano and Robinho were not playing. One hopes Elano would be fit for this match after the rough tackle against Ivory Coast. With these attackers around, Brazil play much differently. Against Portugal, Portugal defended very deep and had many players behind the ball, where Brazil just couldn't find any opportunites to attack or no one to pass the ball to. But then, Brazil v Portugal was just a friendly , and many of their first team were not playing. The last 15 mins in particular was just Brazil passing the ball around the halfway line.

This has got to be the most exciting match of R16. But one that could also be dissapointing because of the number of cards, fouls, false injuries, bad tackles and dives. A brawl could potentially occur if we're lucky. For all these reasons : a must watch.

Paraguay v Japan 1:1

I have to rate this game alongside Ghana vs USA as the most difficult games to analyse in R16.

Like I said,everyone before the Denmark game claimed Japan were 'toothless' and unable to score goals. They scored 3 against Denmark, but then again, 2 of them were from free-kicks, and Denmark played extremely poorly. Japan played excellent football towards the end of that game, but it is claimed that 'the pressure were off' and they were in a comfortable position at that point (As Japan only needed a draw in that game, and even if Denmark were to come back from behind - A draw would be enough to take them to the next round). But Japan played nothing like they did for the last 15 mins against Denmark against any of the other teams. But this could be down to few reasons, Asian teams don't play well against African teams; they tried to play like Denmark against Netherlands to cancel them out. But Japan do look extremely organized defensively. Conceded 0 in first game, lost out to Netherlands due to a goal keeping error, (and note how frustrating that game against Netherlands was, De Jong claimed that the game vs Japan was a test of patience) and Denmark's goal was a penalty.

Like Slovakia, Paraguay haven't been properly tested in their group. They play defensively if they have to (Against Italy) and are quite adept at cancelling teams out. The game against NZ was a friendly. And they played particularly well against Slovakia. They are very organized as well and, realistic, as they defend when it is required of them.

This game could potentially end up in a draw in normal time. Who would prevail in extra time is unknown. Who would prevail in a shoot-out is also an unknown because of the unfamiliarity with the players, but we do know Japan's gk has saved a penalty so far...

Spain v Portugal 0:1

Bookies have made Portugal 3.92 to win and Spain as the favourites.

I think if there's a game for Ronaldo to shine, it is this one. Portugal will be heavily reliant on him to break with pace, as Portugal have shown in the Brazil game, that they could potentially move the entire team behind the ball and in their own half and just defend the entire game that way. Ivory Coast defended the whole game, and against Brazil it was just a friendly. Portugal are very physical if they have to be, and Spain will falter if they do so (Barcelona v Chelsea). If Portugal break on the counter, my guess is they will have plenty of space to exploit.

It will be Ronaldo to determine the outcome of the game. Chances for Portugal will be very few in this game, as they would be pressed in their own half . Like the Brazil game, where defending is required and will be the focus of the game, Ronaldo will play the lone striker role, which he did so against Brazil and did pretty well. Whether Ronaldo will pass a ball to a team mate that is unmarked could potentially be the whether Portugal will win or not. Portugal will win lies down in 3 scenarios: Whether or not: 1. Ronaldo producing just one spark of brilliance by shooting from everywhere on the pitch (which rarely results in a goal by the way) 2.Ronaldo trying too hard to do so (being brilliant), dribbling all the way, but refusing to pass and shoot himself, resulting in team mates in better positions to attack losing out because of his selfishness. 3. Ronaldo plays sensibly and utilises his pace and the many wholes in the spanish defence for the benefit of his team

This will be a very very very frustrating game for Spain, even more than the Switzerland game. and Ronaldo to decide the scoreline.

And I have forgot to mention, Portugal are the only other team (the other one being Uruguay) to have kept a clean sheet for all 3 group stages game. Apparently according to statistics, Portugal have kept around 21-24 clean sheets in 29 games. They will be very hard to score against, but Portugal have a weakeness going foward : the weakness being Ronaldo himself.

And if Portugal starts Deco in this game, you can bet on Spain winning it. Because he will do fuck all in the centre of the park, not defending, not running, not pressing and not attacking. As Portugal will have be very hard-working to grind out a result against Spain. Deco is too lazy for this game.

This game could also potentially go into extra time and penalties.