Round Ups plus further Future Bets

Round up of both June 16 and June 17

Asian Handicap: South Africa v Uruguay 1/4:0. Uruguay 2.10; $5.00 X 2.10 = $10.50
Goal Margin: Spain v Switzerland. Spain by 2+Goals 1.75; Lost $5.00
Spain v Switzerland. Torres NOT to score 1.65; $5.00 X 1.65 = $8.25
Chile v Honduras. Chile 1.55; $5.00 X 1.55 = $7.75
Chile v Hondruas. Under 2.5 goals 1.60; $5.00 X 1.60 = $8.00
South Africa v Uruguay: Uruguay or Draw 1.36; $5.00 x 1.36 = $6.80

Argentina v South Korea; Double Chance South Korea/Draw 2.63; Lost $5.00
France v Mexico; Double Chance Mexico / Draw 1.65; $5.00 x 1.65 = $8.25
Cheeky Bet: France v Mexico; Gallas to Score 11.00; Lost $5.00

June 16 and 17 Total Winnings: $34.55

Two day Total Winnings: $34.55+ $59.25 previous winnings = $93.80

Holy shit, I'm getting pretty good at this, no? Considering all my bets are $5.00 and few $10.00 here and there.

But unfortunately my human brain didn't function as well as my logical brain did on my blog for the Spain game. Got greedy and quite a loss on the Spain v Switzerland game in real life (mainly on Multis). Well, it's considered a BIG loss cause I win so much. Laugh all you want, I consider $30.00 a big loss. But I vow never to let sentiments take over again.

Prediction Form Guide (Correct Score Predictions / Outcomes)

Games played: 20
Correct outcomes (ie win/lose/draw) : 9 (45% accuracy)
Correct scores predictions: 3 (15% accuracy)

Correct outcomes: Argentina v Nigeria, Algeria v Slovenia, Serbia v Ghana, Germany v Australia, Holland v Denmark, Brazil v DPR, Chile v Honduras, South Africa v Uruguay, France v Mexico

Correct Score Predictions:
Argentina v Nigeria 1:0
Serbia v Ghana 0:1
Holland v Denmark 2:0

Past Bets (World Cup Futures)

Now let's look at my past bets still in play. Plenty of money waiting scroll down and you'll see why. My sure-fire wins are in bold italics.

10 June Futures Bets

• France not to Qualify R16 3.15; Bet $5.00
• AFC - NO An AFC Team will not qualify to R16 2.05; Bet $10.00
• Group C Winner - USA 5.00 ; Bet $5.00
• Group D Grand Total Goals Under 14.5 Goals 1.87; Bet $10.00
• Group E Grand Total Goals Over 14.5 Goals 1.87; Bet $5.00
• Group F To Qualify for R16, Slovakia 2.15; Bet $10.00
• Group G Grand Total Goals Over 16.5 Goals 1.95; Bet $5.00
• World Cup Winner Brazil 5.00; Bet $5.00
• Top European Team Germany 8.00; Bet $5.00
• Top African Team Ivory Coast 3.65; Bet $5.00
• Top African Team Ghana 4.50; Bet $5.00

• Look at the first bet! France not to qualify bet on 10 June. Hah!
• I don't think Japan will be able to make it out of the group, South Korea to spoil the AFC bet.
• Group C Winner? Let's see after tonight. But let me tell you the odds are still against USA. Odds today of them qualifying for R16 is at a very generous 2.00
• Group D - Let's hope Australia and Serbia don't spoil my party
• Group E - Is looking bad. I was expecting Japan and Cameroon to concede many hence my prediction.
• Group F - Slovakia. Difficult group to predict for now at least.
• Group G- I was expecting North Korea games to be goalfest. This is a confirmed loss.
• World Cup Winner - They're still my favourites. But right now, I think Chile / Netherlands / Paraguay are real barriers to Brazil's progress to the finals.
• Top European Team: Germany. This depends however on who tops Group A. If its Uruguay, maybe not.
• Top African Team Ivory Coast or Ghana - my proudest and smartest ever bet. Either team, it's a win. Looking like a guaranteed win of 2.65 at least.

12 June Futures

• World Cup Winner Spain 4.50; Bet $5.00
• World Cup Winner Brazil 5.50; Bet $5.00
• World Cup Winner Germany 15.00; Bet $5.00
• World Cup Top Scorer : Villa 8.00;
• Bet $5.00World Cup Top Scorer: Robinho 26.00;
• Bet $5.00World Cup Top Scorer: Van Persie 11.00; Bet $5.00
• World Cup To Qualify for Semi Final: USA 10.00 ; Bet $5.00
• """ : Germany 3.00; Bet $5.00
• """" : Brazil 2.10; Bet $5.00
• """": Spain 2.00; Bet $5.00

• World Cup Winners, speaks for itself. And you probably can tell what I was trying to do. And you can probably tell it doesn't look all that good at this moment.
• World Cup Top Scorer: Villa, Robinho, Van Persie. (Interesting to note. Higuain is now 2+ to end up top-scorer). This doesn't look too good either?
• World Cup To Qualify for Semi Final: re USA, assuming they end up top of the group, which I have always believed they will.

There, you've seen all my Futures Bets.

Now, some interesting things to note today.

Re Higuain is now 2.75 to be WC top scorer and Forlan at 8.00.

Looking at how scarce the goals are at this world cup (but note the sudden explosion of goals), I think it's reasonable to be priced at 2.75 even though I made a bold predictedion they'd never make it past R16 (and still believe so, it will be either a R16 or QF exit).
The Magic number I think will be 5.
Here's stats of Golden Boots: 98 WC Suker 6 goals, 02 WC Ronaldo 8 Goals, Euro 04 Baros 5 goals, WC 06 Klose 5 Goals, Euro 08 Villa 4 goals. Average = 5.6 Goals

I think Higuain will be rested on Argentina's last group game vs greece. But Messi will start (another story). So therefore Higuain has to hit 2 goals in 2 games (assuming they only make to QF) to reach 5 goals.

So who else I think is capable of hitting 5 goals?

• Sad but true, Klose priced at 8.50 (Serbia thrashing, plus Germany reaching Semis)
• Forlan priced at 8.00 Uruguay who have a very high chance of reaching Semis if they top their group. And he will start the next match against Mexico, because they will be playing to avoid Argentina. If they do reach the finals (not impossible if they top the group), he will have to score another 3 in 5 games to reach the magic number 5.
• Robin Van Persie is priced at 13.00. Yet to score, his only chance of becoming top scorer is if he hits a hat trick against Japan. But I'm thinking Netherlands will stop at the Quarters, but he will be rested against Cameroon in their last group game. So he has to hit 5 goals in 3 games.
• Messi is priced at 15.00 which I think is a very good bet. He is capable of hitting a hat trick, any time, against anyone, except: Switzerland, Brazil, Uruguay and any team that look like they're going to murder Barcelona.
• Robinho (34.00) unbelievably is priced BEHIND Crouch (29.00) and Gerrard (29.00)! Good Bet? Yes and No. Yes: Brazil will reach the finals unless Uruguay / Chile stops them. No: Brazil's style of play is such that goals will come from everywhere evenly distributed (think Italy 06), there won't be any particular player scoring their goals for them because they have so many players capable of doing so. My early favourite because I predicted him to score a hat-trick against North Korea, but now that the game is over, So is the chances of him winning the Golden Boot.

Reluctantly, I think the odds are right (Except for the Crouch priced lower than Robinho, and Rooney priced at 11.00 ) bit. Who's worth a bet? In order: Higuain, Forlan, Klose and Messi.

World Cup Winner Odds as at 18 June

Shock, horror. Guess who's the favourite at the moment? Argentina at 5.00
Good Bet? No.

Germany is now priced at 6.00. I don't know what it was at the start of the tournament, but I'm assuming its more than my top Europe team bet at 8.00 (Laughs)

England I think have dropped from 7.50 or less to 8.50. (What rubbish, its still way too low).

Here's the top ten teams: Argentina 5.00 ; Brazil & Spain at 5.50; Germany 6.00; Holland 8.00; England 8.50; Italy 15.00; Portugal 29.00; Chile, Ivory Coast, Mexico, Uruguay tied at 34.00

Bad Bets: Argentina, Holland, England, Portugal

Now Big Question, Good Bets? Believe it or not, Chile and Uruguay are worth a flutter, and at 34.00 a pretty good one too.

But disclaimer, with World Cup Winner Futures and Top Scorer Futures, the aim here is not to 'make money' or winning. It's sort of like buying the lotto / TOTO/ 4D. It's money you're prepared to lose. Not money you utilise to make more money for you.