Uruguay v Netherlands 1:2
Prediction slightly more optimistic. I highly suspect this to be a low scoring game, 1-1 draw or 1-0 win.
Uruguay's loss of Suarez would hurt them. Uruguay will play with a very different shape without him, I suspect. Forlan would be pushed further upfield, closer to Cavani, and Cavani moving futher infield (he operated wider usually). Unless Uruguay find a like for like replacement for Suarez, that would be their front shape. As I mentioned before, Uruguay fairly very solid defensively. Ghana managed to find chances against them, but Uruguay cannot be blamed for the goal conceded. Uruguay are particularly weak at defending set pieces, which could be fatal for their chances progressing to the final, based on Holland's display in the QF, the second goal particularly, looked like something they worked in training.
Holland's loss of De Jong is big, but maybe not enough to jeopardize their chances. This is subject to whether or not Suarez's suspension would move Forlan from the role behind the strikers, further upfield. Had Suarez been available, Uruguay actually have a stronger chance of getting a result in this match because of the loss of De Jong. And Holland's defense (individually weak, but not as a unit) have been largely protected by the presence of MVB and DJ so far in this competition, with both playing extremely well throughout.
Germany v Spain 3:1
Like I mentioned before the Germany v England game, Spain SHOULD NOT field a 4-4-2. The reason why is because of Germany's numbers in midfield. And for further explaination on this see my post on England v Germany.
To be honest, everything here points to a Germany victory. Even if Spain fields a 4-5-1, it wouldn't change things 'too' much.
The key here is who scores the first goal. If Germany does, Spain will be raped in the most ruthless and cruel way imaginable.
Spain's weakness is its midfield. Xavi drops too deep, playing almost the same line as Busquets and Xabi. The problem with Spain's midfield is that they do not do their defensive duties well. Because Xavi drops deep, playing the same line as Xabi, Busquets; when Spain need an extra man or two forward to support the attack, it is unclear whose role is it exactly to do the job. Any of the 3 are able to do the job nicely, but this distracts all 3 of them from their defensive duties, without a clearly defined role assigned to any of them. Spain are very very open in the centre of the park. And as mentioned in the earlier articles, when Pique comes forward, no one goes back to support. Puyol does the defending job of 3 players in such situations : himself, Pique's and the defensive midfielder's, if you noticed vs Paraguay it looks as if Puyol is the only one defending against either strikers, because Pique has gone AWOL.
Pique is a disaster waiting to happen. They way in which he played Paraguay's players onside is suicidal. I have always thought Spain's defense is poor, people always pointed to the individual players they have, but as a team they are rubbish. They do not operate in a unit. I never thought Pique is a good defender anyway. He plays for the biggest club in the world, Barcelona, not because he is a good defender, but because he is a good football player, suited to Barcelona's style of play. Pique in particular, is clumsy, distracted, and undisciplined positionally. If Pique doesn't play properly, Klose and Ozil would hurt Spain badly.
In fact, I don't see any of the Spain's midfielder having a likely role of marking Ozil. They will pay greatly for that.
The only consolation for the Spainish defense is possibly their fullbacks. Capdevilla and Ramos are particularly pacey and extremely hardworking. They will come up against the likes of Podolski (Ramos) and probably Trochowski / Kroos (Capdevilla). The only danger is that Either of these 2 players ( Podolski / Trochowski) will drag the Spanish fullbacks infield / out of position, leaving the either flanks, particularly the right, for Lahm to come in and attack. I think its easy to see a Germany goal (Klose) coming from a Lahm cross in this game. If Spain plays their 4-4-2, Iniesta and Villa will do very little defensively from pinning back the German fullbacks. In fact this was the reason why Argentina lost, Messi, Higuain and Di Maria didn't do enough defensively to pressure Sxxxger / Khadeira and Lahm. If you watched the game you will notice how much space Lahm has when he runs forward.
If Spain concede early, they will be punished heavily when they start comitting players to attack, as their defense is one of the worse. To prove that Spain has a terrible defense, look at their past results and count the clean sheets.
But another scenario is if Spain actually prolongs the scoreline at 0-0 or actually score first. Its not all doom and gloom and a 100% victory for Germany, Spain could actually frustrate Germany a bit, IF the scoreline is level. Spain high pressing game from Xavi, Iniesta, Xabi will force errors out of Sxxxger, giving him little time on the ball, and little time to think where to pass the ball to. If Spain presses so much as to shut out Sxxger, which is quite a real possibility, they could actually win it, because they've effectively disabled the German's Engine. And Germany work better when teams are actually attacking them, so if the scoreline stays at 0-0, Germany could find it slightly more difficult. If you noticed, in Ger vs Arg game, Messi was playing alongside Sxxger (Earlier at least, he moved deeper later because they were playing so close to each and Messi had to try to shake himself free), but whenever Sxxger has the ball, he has so much time available and space in front of him, to decide what to do next with the ball. What happened was whenever Sxxger has the ball, Messi just stops in his tracks (what strikers do normally, but Messi wasn't playing as high up as a striker, Higuain, and in modern football, attacking midfielders have to defend) Spain has to play the way Paraguay played against them. Sxxxger should never have the ball at his feet for more than 3 seconds in the game.
The teams that did well against Germany? Serbia and Ghana. They didn't try to attack them like England and Argentina did. Serbia and Ghana put a lot of men behind the ball and in their own half. It is unlikely to ever see Spain do that. But putting pressure on Sxxxger could actually work, in fact, any Spanish victory would actually be a result of that, and there's actually a pretty high chance of that because that is exactly how Spain plays.
The loss of Muller would not be a big one, as Kroos and Trochowski are good players.
